Friday, April 30, 2010

'Kites' In Spanish

Today’s movies are fast being remade into other languages and versions. There is no language barrier as such. There has been a Tamil version of Aishwarya’s ‘Ravan’. Hrithik Roshan’s ‘Kites’ is now ready for a flying start. The Hindi version is roughly a quarter and two hours of duration and the English version is an hour and a half. The Hindi version of ‘Kites’ has still not hit the screens and

War flags and peace pennants



Flags have long served as symbols, good and bad, violent and nonviolent, attacking and defending. They are just cloth and yet will inspire people to kill, die, charge, flee, and stand ground in noble sacrifice.

In many ways, the flags of Mozambique and India stand as polar opposites, the one with a deadly weapon on a background of red signifying blood, and the other with a wheel signifying the laws of Ashoka the peace ruler. In other ways, even those flags are similar.


"The flag of Mozambique was adopted on May 1, 1983. It includes the image of an AK-47 and is the only national flag in the world to feature such a modern rifle.

The original flag of the FRELIMO, the leading political party in Nigrossa, also had green, black, and yellow horizontal stripes separated by white fimbriations. In the hoist was a red triangle. The black, green, and yellow were derived from the flag of the African National Congress, used in South Africa. On independence the colors were rearranged to form the national flag, in rays emanating from the upper hoist. Over this was a white cogwheel containing the hoe, rifle, book, and star that appear on the present flag. The flag was altered in 1983; the colors were arranged in horizontal stripes, and the star of Marxism was made larger. Proposals for a new, non-partisan flag have been introduced. Green stands for the riches of the land, the white fimbriations signify peace, black represents the African continent, yellow symbolizes the country's minerals, and red represents the struggle for independence. The rifle stands for defense and vigilance, the open book symbolizes the importance of education, the hoe represents the country's agriculture, and the star symbolizes Marxism and internationalism" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Mozambique)

The Indian national flag is a horizontal tricolor of deep saffron (kesaria) at the top, white in the middle and dark green at the bottom in equal proportion. In the center of the white band is a navy blue wheel which represents the chakra; it represents the wheel on the abacus of the Sarnath Lion Capital of Ashoka. Its diameter approximates to the width of the white band and it has 24 spokes. The design was adopted by the Constituent Assembly of India on 22 July 1947 and first unfurled on 15 August that year of independence.

The commitment to revolutionary violence symbolized in the Mozambique flag may have meant to instill pride in the hearts of Mozambicans or terror in the hearts of all who meant harm to the nation. It hasn't made too many friends; brandishing weapons and literally waving them symbolically to the world is not the most inviting gesture.

On the other hand, the flag of India is not the flag Mohandas K. Gandhi wanted. He preferred one with a different wheel, a charkha, not a chakra. The charkha was the spinning wheel Gandhi said was the song of independence for his nation, literally spinning up economic self-sufficiency by eliminating the entire industrialized manufacturing loop by which Indian cotton was sent to the mill towns in England or to English-owned mills in India to be made into cloth that would then become English clothing to sell back at high prices to increasingly dependent and impoverished Indians. Gandhi's swadeshi campaign was meant to free India in spirit, in economy, and politically. He saw khadi--homespun cloth--as the cloth for fashion and for the flag.

His choice of colors was meant to signify the communities of diverse India, with the various weakest ones (numerically) represented by white, at the top. Then came the green of Islam and, at the bottom, meant to offer support and protection for all, was red of Hinduism. He wanted the flag to be homespun khaddar (Gonsalvez, p. 75).

Instead, after great debate, the charkha was replaced by the Dharma Chakra, the Wheel of Righteousness, taken from the rule of Ashoka, who rose to power in a series of bloody wars in the 3rd century BCE and then decided that he wanted to rule in peace and nonviolence. Gandhi's means and ends were identical; Nehru and others were almost a flip of that, since they used Gandhian nonviolence to attain independence and immediately made sure that India was defended militarily, even starting a totally unnecessary war with China 15 years later.

The preferences of other major communal leaders of the time were also illuminating. Mohammed Ali Jinnah, a thoroughly rich and sophisticated Westerner in dress and manner, despised and rejected khadi as coarse and common. B.R. Ambedkar, the Dalit leader, rejected khadi because to him it symbolized Hindu oppression of his people (even though Gandhi specifically honored Dalits, fasted for their equality almost to the death, and stayed only with them in some Indian cities). V.D. Savarkar was a Hindu nationalist and he rejected khadi for its inclusivity; he wanted an all-Hindu nation. Thus these three leaders--all of whom Gandhi routinely praised and attempted to befriend (photo of Gandhi and Jinnah)--opposed his brand of freedom struggle for their own identity reasons. Gandhi rose above all of them but they conspired in their own way to bring him down. Jinnah succeeded in partition and one of the Hindu nationalists assassinated Gandhi. Ambedkar maintained his sour opinion of Gandhi, even though it is patently obvious Gandhi achieved more to end Untouchability than Ambedkar or any other individual ever has.

Semiotics and symbology are just representations, but can work powerfully in conflict and can reveal endlessly that our human brains are sometimes too big for our own good. From culture to culture, we create these signs that produce love, hate, fierce protectiveness, hubris, violence, devotion and mass insanity called war.

For me, the Earth flag, Gandhi's khaddar charkha flag, or various versions of pace (peace) flags are the kind of peace and inclusivity signals I like. Humble and welcoming, universal and borderless, these flags say it best.

References
Gonsalvez, Peter (2010). Clothing for liberation: A communication analysis of Gandhi’s swadeshi revolution. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Mozambique

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Nonviolent energy



The approval of an offshore windfarm in Nantucket Sound near Cape Cod is a welcome step to those who are deeply angered by the oil spill from an offshore rig near New Orleans in the Gulf of Mexico.

Despite ill-advised objections from Not-In-My-Backbay 'environmentalists' and tribal members from two local tribes who have a stronger historical claim but no real argument aside from that, the project is going forward. It presages more such large wind developments and that is to the good.

We are not likely to invade a country to secure more wind for our multinational profiteers. We are not likely to see seabirds or shorebirds threatened by massive wind spills. Simply put, wind is a nonviolent choice, harnessing a natural and endlessly renewable resource that can sustain all of us without significant environmental problems.

I seldom disagree with tribes, but in this case I do. I strongly suspect that their objections might relate to a common problem experienced by tribes--disrespect. In the field of conflict resolution, this is a predictor of a poor process and even if no one actively or overtly disrespected the tribes in this particular case, it is likely that two factors contributed to the strong perception of disrespect.

One, history. Tribes not only had their land stolen, they were subsequently treated with disregard, disrespect and often quite overt racism and blatant imperiousness. All tribal members carry this collective memory that has lasted since contact and the Cape Cod tribes thus carry almost 500 years of this identity.

Two, our command and control decisionmaking process as a society usually brings in significant stakeholders long after some basic decisions have been made. There is no decisionmaking process worse than sham inclusivity or ersatz democracy. The field of environmental conflict is rife with examples of the ill-advised nature of such a system and the bumpy process it produces.

So to the tribes who opposed this, I say I'm sorry. Environmentally, there is no anthropogenic activity free of some impact and offshore windfarms have some small perturbance guaranteed. Even desert solarfarms change things, but when we look at the results of coal, nuclear, oil and other sources of energy, anyone with a modicum of sense would choose a windfarm. (pictured is the Vindeby wind farm, one of many offshore Denmark).

Obama approved more nukes and more offshore oil and gas drilling. This is just one of many of his 'Obamanations.' When we consider those poor decisions and then the windfarms on or offshore I hope we have the rational ability to support the one that doesn't involve war on humans or nature. Indeed, with enough solar and windfarms, we could generate enough electricity to power our new generations of all-electric cars and really start building a peace ecology instead of our current war system.

Someday, perhaps, we will have an actual national discussion about these crucial matters and we will, for once, feel consulted. Such a process could serve to also mitigate our political bipolar disorder by achieving a civil discourse that trumps the current national spectacle of the two party breakdown. All these common sense developments would serve us well and would bring us much closer to a society based on nonviolence.

Kareena plays Shah Rukh’s wife

In their next movie, Shah Rukh and Kareena play a couple. The movie is Shah Rukh’s home production under Red Chillies Entertainment. The film ‘Ra.1’ is a science fiction in which Shah Rukh is a scientist. He is based in London and wants to develop a robot.Everything is ok until now. However, what is a film without its troubles? The robot starts acting nasty and is soon a troublemaker not only in

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-28-2010 (Seattle 6, Kansas City 5)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEARyan Rowland-Smith -2.5330.000-2.5330.0000.0008.7817
SEARob Johnson -1.030-0.5280.0000.000-0.5020.000
SEACasey Kotchman 2.0621.9050.0000.0000.1570.000
SEAChone Figgins 2.5411.6030.0001.685-0.7470.000
SEAJose Lopez -0.364-0.5620.0000.1980.0000.000
SEAJack Wilson 2.9000.5730.0002.3270.0000.000
SEAMilton Bradley 0.519-0.0840.0000.6030.0000.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez -1.942-2.0290.0000.0870.0000.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki 0.7261.0750.000-0.5060.1570.000
SEAMike Sweeney -0.348-0.3810.0000.0000.0330.000
SEASEA Luckbox0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEABrandon League0.3820.0000.3820.0000.0002.664
SEAMark Lowe-0.4060.000-0.4060.0000.0008.433
SEADavid Aardsma-0.4430.000-0.4430.0000.0008.743


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
KCRGil Meche -1.3540.000-0.422-0.9320.0005.6318
KCRJason Kendall 2.0672.1830.000-0.1160.0000.000
KCRBilly Butler -1.245-0.2990.000-0.9460.0000.000
KCRWillie Bloomquist -0.585-1.5200.0001.479-0.5440.000
KCRAlberto Callaspo -0.259-0.3070.0000.300-0.2520.000
KCRYuniesky Betancourt -0.725-0.9410.0000.2160.0000.000
KCRScott Podsednik 1.210-0.2180.0001.4280.0000.000
KCRMitch Maier 2.2111.6000.0000.6110.0000.000
KCRDavid DeJesus -1.1030.3070.000-1.4100.0000.000
KCRJose Guillen -0.714-0.7140.0000.0000.0000.000
KCRKCR Luckbox0.1450.1450.0000.0000.0000.000
KCRTrey Hillman0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
KCRAlex Gordon0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
KCRBrad Thompson0.5860.0000.4450.1410.0002.264
KCRDusty Hughes -0.8030.000-0.9660.1630.00013.113
KCRRob Tejeda -0.5460.000-0.5460.0000.00011.882
 Kauffmann Stadium0.9490.0000.000-0.9490.0000.000


Player of the Game: Jack Wilson (2.900 NRuns: 0.573 hitting, 2.327 fielding)

Pretty good:

Chone Figgins (2.541 NRuns: 1.603 hitting, 1.685 fielding, -0.747 running)
Casey Kotchman (2.062 NRuns: 1.905 hitting, 0.157 fielding)

Pretty bad:

Ryan Rowland-Smith (-2.533 pitching NRuns)
Franklin Gutierrez (-1.942 NRuns: -2.029 hitting, 0.087 fielding)

The Royals can play sometimes:

Mitch Maier (2.211 NRuns: 1.600 hitting, 0.611 fielding)
Jason Kendall (2.067 NRuns: 2.183 hitting, -0.116 fielding)

******

Ryan Rowland-Smith: He looked alright the first four innings. He didn't look so good in the 5th, and he looked absolutely terrible in the 6th, which completely sunk his outing. After spending most of the game with an EXERA in the 3's, the 5th sent it up to 5.73 and the 6th inning meltdown left him with an 8.78.

This, however, is not a serious cause for alarm. RRS has historically been a poor pitcher in April who picks up steam and pitches much better the rest of the season. Here are his rate stats by month over his four year MLB career:

MonthBAOBPSLGBB%K%
April0.2500.3380.47711.47.6
May0.2240.2810.2417.720.0
June0.1880.2840.34412.229.7
July0.2610.3260.4466.814.8
August0.2410.3090.3898.117.1
Sep/Oct0.2690.3250.4187.813.0


And in many of those seasons, his velocity and command start out weak and picks up, just as his numbers do. He'll get better. In time, keeping him over Snell will seem more like the smarter move, unless Snell puts it together and becomes a better pitcher during his time in the pen... in which case that's a problem you'd like to have.

P&JxPM

Peace and justice by peaceable means.

That, to me, is the simplest definition of positive peace. I've struggled with this over the years and have read many complex definitions. I believe they can rightly be reduced to the above definition.

The imposed peace--Pax Romana, Pax Britannica, Pax Americana--are classic negative peace conditions, engendered a passive-aggressive response because they use brute force or the threat of it to enforce a false peace imposed by an imperial power. In reality, the subjects, those oppressed, invaded, occupied and threatened are plotting the overthrow and eviction of the empire.

Peace and justice by peaceable means, on the other hand, produces much more sustainable results. The desire for revenge is redacted from the palette of responses to positive peace. Of course this will prove to be sustainable more often and longer than negative peace.

Ah, but negative peace can produce an empire that lasts. True, but only so long as the brute force lasts. If that is a price the empire can pay in all its faces--blood, treasure and moral/ethical costs--then it can maintain such a 'peace.'

Of course positive peace requires maintenance too. Our human nature is such that we constantly push the margins of social norms when we are motivated by selfishness and greed. At that point our social norms are a reflection of the cumulative individual norms and the civil discourse we have about them. Maintaining worthy social norms--including the peaceful enforcement of those good norms--is an endless struggle against corruption and venality, which are a part of human nature just as surely as is altruism.(This is why positive peace is a systemic product and a systemic means of production of that product. Each subsystem--education, law enforcement, the economy, law writing and interpretation, the family, religion, governance, collective self-defense, conflict management and more--has its own output, which feeds into the sum of forces that produces war or peace, low-level war, unjust imposed peace of the empire, or peace and justice by peaceable means.

As individuals and as collectives we make the world more or less peaceful, more or less just, each day. Is that a burden or an opportunity?

Yes.

In case I haven't really covered it (and that's quite possible)...

What are Net Runs?

Similar to Sean Smith's RE24, Net Runs scores each play in a game solely by the run expectancy added or subtracted by each player, and gives us a total number of runs contributed for each player in the game. It delves deeper than RE24 by awarding defenders for plays made in the field, awarding baserunners for their baserunning, and factoring in luck, managerial decisions that take matters out of the players' hands and the dimensions of the park. Pitchers are scored in full only for outcomes in their direct control (walks, strikeouts, wild pitches, etc), while balls in play they allow are mostly scored according to their MLB average run value, adjusted for park factors.

Run expectancy numbers are derived from a composite five year league average (2005-2009) weighed more heavily towards recent seasons, and adjusted by park using ESPN's park factors and Tom Tango's Markov function. 2010 data will get factored in accordingly (with 2005 data being phased out) as that sample builds and normalizes.

What is EXERA?

EXERA is short for Expected ERA, taken from a pitcher's Net Runs earned and added with the league average runs scored per inning in the respective park(s) to devise an ERA the pitcher would expect to run in that park with a league average defense based on his performance. Each park has it's own baseline EXERA, against which the pitcher's performance is compared.

If a pitcher's actual ERA is better than his EXERA, his defense helped him out and/or he had some luck. But if it's worse, he had some bad luck or poor defense.

What is EMERA?

EMERA is short for Expected MLB ERA and is used to estimate how a given minor league pitcher would fare if he were immediately called up to the Majors, based on his walk, strikeout and batted ball rates during a given season at his current level.

To estimate this performance, the major league averages for walks, strikeouts and the three major batted ball types are adjusted to the player's given level through MLE adjustments. Then the player's rate for each batted ball type is adjusted by these revised weights to create a hypothetical opponent's batting line over the pitcher's number of ABs against. This line is run through a Markov equation to devise a runs per game total, which is then adjusted to give us EMERA. EMERA can also be used to compare pitchers between levels and organizations, since their raw numbers are neutralized.

Almost a day's Shooting

Movie lovers, movie buffs or fans only get to see the glamour of the lovely looking women. They just enjoy what they see on the scene. However, one hardly spares a thought of how much goes behind the scene. Shilpa Shetty is whom we are talking about and the shooting is that of a reality show – ‘Zara Nach Ke Dikha'. Shilpa Shetty had to shoot for as long as 22 hours and that too at a stretch.A

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-27-2010 (Seattle 3, Kansas City 2)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEAIan Snell 0.6380.000-0.4531.0910.0005.7616
SEAAdam Moore -0.998-0.9980.0000.0000.0000.000
SEACasey Kotchman -1.776-2.0480.0000.2720.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins -1.379-0.4370.000-0.9420.0000.000
SEAJose Lopez 1.013-0.2910.0000.6880.6160.000
SEAJack Wilson -1.340-1.1500.000-0.1900.0000.000
SEAMilton Bradley 3.8611.3630.0002.4980.0000.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez 3.1020.9780.0002.1240.0000.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki -2.094-0.0910.000-1.501-0.5020.000
SEAKen Griffey Jr0.1150.1150.0000.0000.0000.000
SEASEA Luckbox0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAEric Byrnes 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAShawn Kelley 0.6200.0000.6200.0000.0001.945
SEAMark Lowe -0.1530.000-0.1530.0000.0006.323
SEADavid Aardsma -0.6090.000-0.6090.0000.00010.133


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
KCRZack Greinke 1.3390.0001.3390.0000.0003.4521
KCRJason Kendall -0.622-1.0960.0000.4740.0000.000
KCRBilly Butler 1.5951.1990.0000.3960.0000.000
KCRAlberto Callaspo -1.475-0.2920.000-1.1830.0000.000
KCRAlex Gordon-0.308-0.4910.0000.0260.1570.000
KCRYuniesky Betancourt -2.195-0.9910.000-1.2040.0000.000
KCRScott Podsednik -0.105-0.7050.0000.6000.0000.000
KCRMitch Maier 1.6621.1850.0000.4480.0290.000
KCRDavid DeJesus 0.456-0.6230.0001.447-0.3680.000
KCRJose Guillen -1.606-1.6060.0000.0000.0000.000
KCRKCR Luckbox0.1570.1570.0000.0000.0000.000
KCRTrey Hillman0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
KCRJosh Rupe-0.1020.000-0.1020.0000.0007.601
KCRRob Tejeda -1.1150.000-0.295-0.8200.0000
KCRBruce Chen1.3190.0001.2050.1140.0000.005
 Kauffmann Stadium0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000


Players of the Game because picking only one is absurd:

Milton Bradley (3.861 NRuns: 1.363 hitting, 2.498 fielding)
Franklin Gutierrez (3.102 NRuns: 0.978 hitting, 2.124 fielding)

ICHIRO HURTS THIS TEAM WITH NEGATIVE NET RUNS (-2.094 NRuns: -0.091 hitting, -1.501 fielding, -0.502 running)

See what happens, Wak, when you use a reliever for multiple innings?: Shawn Kelley (0.620 pitching NRuns)

That pitcher's pretty good, you should use him more: Zack Greinke (1.339 pitching NRuns)

They used to be Mariners:

Yuniesky Betancourt (-2.195 NRuns: -0.991 hitting, -1.204 fielding... the GOAT)
Jose Guillen (-1.606 hitting NRuns)

******

There was no way Ian Snell was going to pitch himself out of a demotion to the bullpen today, but despite his initial trouble he actually pitched very well in the early innings. Both back to back base hits that led off the game were on groundballs past Chone Figgins, and he got a strikeout and pop out with the bases loaded in that frame before a tapback to the mound got him out of it. Even the leadoff double in the 2nd came on a groundball, and none of his outcomes before the inning ending lineout in the 3rd were negative. Even the leadoff walk and wild pitch to start the 4th were negated by a strikeout, and his flyball that led to a triple was negated by a groundout.

It was only the Royals blasting off in his final 1.1 frames (three line drives and a walk) that brought his EXERA hurtling back to Earth like an armaggeddonic meteor. Though Snell will now work out of the bullpen with Cliff Lee back, he showed a ton of reasons today why the team keeps trying to work him into a better pitcher.

This was still a cheese grater of a win, and it took Milton Bradley and Franklin Gutierrez capitalizing with men on for the Mariners to pull ahead. One other positive is that Wak FINALLY used a reliever for multiple frames after a long stretch of one inning outings, as Shawn Kelley finished up the 6th for Snell, and then worked a 1-2-3 7th. See, Wak, it can work! Also, Kudos for actually using the otherwise disused Kelley. Shawn's velocity was down, but he also wasn't working consistently. Perhaps a rhythm of consistent outings can help him get back to form.

KJO-RGV: The fight continues

Don’t think that there are only the on-screen celebrities who have a thing or two to say against each other. The behind-the-scene celebs too are lagging far behind. We are talking about the famous and prolific filmmakers, Karan Johar and Ram Gopal Verma. The hostility towards each other got underway when RGV had a comment to pass about KJO’s ‘Kabhi Alvida Na Kehna’.Since then there has been

Bedfont Sports FC

Bedfont Sports 0 Worcester Park 2 - Combined Counties League, Division One

Combined Counties League

Bedfont is a small suburban town in Greater London, some 13 miles to the west of central London and only 2 miles from Heathrow Airport. It straddles the Staines Road at the west of the London Borough of Hounslow from Baber Bridge on the River Crane to the Surrey boundary at Ashford. Referred to in the Doomsday Book as Bedefunde, the name is thought to be derived from Anglo-Saxon Bedfunta  meaning bed’s spring or Bydenfunta meaning spring provided with a drinking-vessel. Bedfont has the unique claim of having two surviving manor houses. Pates Manor, once owned by the Page family, is behind the church and is the oldest house in the Borough with one wing dating from the late 15th century. Fawns Manor, on the south side of the Green, dates from the 16th century and was sold to the British Airways Housing Association in the 1980’s by the Sherborn family, who had owned it from the 17th century.


Another midweek after work jaunt and another dip into the delights of the Combined Counties League. A refreshment stop at the William Morris at Hammersmith was followed by what is best described as a ‘pants’ Piccadilly Line experience in getting to Hatton Cross. However, I was still there for just after 7pm and it takes less than 10 minutes to reach the Bedfont Recreation Ground from the station.


To reach the ground you cross the busy A30 turning into Hatton Road, which immediately bends to the right. Before reaching the ground, you encounter Bedfont FC on the left-hand side. Bedfont Sports FC is the adjacent facility slightly further along Hatton Road on the same side.


It is clear to see that in a relatively short time the club has improved the facilities at the ground. There is hard standing on all four sides and adjacent to the clubhouse (with licenced bar), there is some covered standing accommodation. The tea bar is also situated on this side and these facilities will soon be supplemented by a seated stand in time for next season.


This is Bedfont Sports FC’s first season in the Combined Counties League. They are currently playing catch up having had a number of matches postponed this season. The club appears to have acquitted to this level of football and appear set for a comfortable mid table finish. I saw Worcester Park FC on a couple of occasions towards the end of last season and was impressed with their style and ability. They missed out on the title last time but this season are the favourites to win the league.


Two headed goals in the first half an hour of this encounter put the visitors in the driving seat and it is clear to see why they are doing so well this season. However, this was not a one sided match as the home side are also a very good footballing outfit and certainly made a decent match of it. The game was played in a decent fashion and they appeared to be mutual respect for each other by the two sides. Once again the improving standard of this division has provided good entertainment.


Back at the tube station by 9:45, it was good to see that the Piccadilly line had sorted itself out and it was not long before an eastbound service was speeding me back to the metropolis. A couple of changes at Green Park and Tottenham Hale meant I was back at Cheshunt by 11.20 and indoors not long after that.



Attendance: 66
Admission: £3.00
Programme: £1.00
Cheeseburger: £2.00
Tea: 50p
Fare: £5.00 (All Zone Travelcard with Goldcard discount)

Photographic Archive

Nonviolent communication...shhhhh....


"Silence intersects with language in some important ways for us. First, we rarely have all the language at hand to capture how we feel in something as often personally and emotionally charged as a conflict. Second, sometimes we know that any language we do choose is charged with relational and even cultural politics....Third, sometimes all we have is silence because we do not know how to talk about something that is out of our realm of experience....Fourth, sometimes we do not know what to say because we do not know exactly how we feel..."
--Peter M. Kellett, Conflict Dialogue (2007, p. 77)

The most important component of a nonviolent strategy is communication. This is true for the use of nonviolence with regard to deëscalation, civil resistance, interposition, lobbying, accompaniment, civil society uprising, or demonstrations.

Listening is the most important communication tool. Not just being quiet, but actually hearing and trying to understand the other party or parties. Active listening is not jumping in to respond, but rather to clearly show that you are listening by appearing attentive, appearing receptive if not in agreement, and by indicating that you are listening for what follows rather than coiling yourself for the pounceback.

Last night we offered a deëscalation training to staff at the wonderful Sisters of the Road Cafe. These first-rate folks are at the front lines of nonviolent work in Portland and model the kind of conflict management that we say we want if we are pacifists, that is, they show that they value even the roughcut, damaged, bent people who can occasionally lose all sense of civil behavior. They learn how to show that care and compassion even as they protect that safety of all in the Cafe by asking belligerents to leave--or they leave with them, helping to calm everyone.

Most bellicose people simmer down once you convince them you are listening, you are hearing, and you are thinking about their message. "Perception is at the core of all conflict analysis," write Joyce Hocker and William Wilmot in the seventh edition of their classic in the field, Interpersonal conflict (p. 9). Create the perception that you are already listening and the conflict parties realize they don't necessarily have to punch you in the nose to help you start.

The challenges faced every day by the Sisters staff and volunteers are made manageable by three factors, all of which require upkeeping.

One, they support each other. The managers take floor shifts alongside the frontline staff. Information and backup encouragement is shared routinely.

Two, the policies of Sisters are grounded in what the community has expressed they need, want, and prefer. That is how Genny Nelson founded the Cafe in 1979 and the match between community need and Sisters policies continues.

Three, they train constantly, keeping skills sharp and learning the theoretical codes that make those tough moments so memorable.

Nonviolence is at the heart of Sisters and at the core of the most respectful communication. The dialectical relationship amongst these components produces a learning model that is deceptively quiet and attentive, but says a lot.

references
Kellett, Peter M. (2007). Conflict dialogue: Working with layers of meaning for productive relationships. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.

Wilmot, William W. & Hocker, Joyce L. (2007, original 1978). Interpersonal conflict (7th ed). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Companies.

Marriage Conundrums

That, could be termed as one of the most feared relationship conundrums. Living together and leaving? This is really a tough question to answer. There could be answers for many conundrums here in terms of a 'relationship', but this one is a sort of question which is rather tough and it seems like I am running out of ideas as to what I would have done had I found myself in such a situation. This

Monday, April 26, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-26-2010 (Kansas City 3, Seattle 1)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEAFelix Hernandez -0.2770.0000.493-0.7700.0004.4621
SEARob Johnson 0.8120.8120.0000.0000.0000.000
SEACasey Kotchman -0.881-1.1600.0000.2790.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins -3.121-1.4470.000-1.6740.0000.000
SEAJose Lopez -1.782-1.8080.0000.0260.0000.000
SEAJack Wilson -0.611-1.2230.0000.6120.0000.000
SEAMilton Bradley 1.716-0.3230.0002.0390.0000.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez 2.228-0.2160.0002.4440.0000.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki 0.237-0.1510.0000.0000.3880.000
SEAKen Griffey Jr-0.317-0.3170.0000.0000.0000.000
SEASEA Luckbox0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAMike Sweeney 1.0001.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAMatt Tuiasosopo 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEASean White-0.6600.000-0.6600.0000.00010.553


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
KCRKyle Davies 0.4510.0000.4510.0000.0004.4218
KCRJason Kendall -1.527-1.4260.000-0.1010.0000.000
KCRBilly Butler 1.3221.0100.0000.3120.0000.000
KCRAlberto Callaspo -1.897-1.1970.000-0.7000.0000.000
KCRAlex Gordon-0.238-0.4010.0000.1630.0000.000
KCRYuniesky Betancourt 0.6520.4540.0000.1980.0000.000
KCRScott Podsednik 2.009-0.0370.0002.0460.0000.000
KCRMitch Maier 2.045-0.5550.0002.6000.0000.000
KCRDavid DeJesus -0.203-0.6610.0000.4580.0000.000
KCRJose Guillen -0.325-0.3250.0000.0000.0000.000
KCRKCR Luckbox1.2981.2980.0000.0000.0000.000
KCRTrey Hillman0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
KCRBrad Thompson-0.5580.000-0.5580.0000.00019.011
KCRDusty Hughes -0.5450.000-1.1160.5710.00019.012
KCRKyle Farnsworth -0.3940.000-0.3940.0000.0007.025
KCRBruce Chen0.5150.0000.5150.0000.0000.001
 Kauffmann Stadium0.9490.0000.000-0.9490.0000.000


Player of the Game: Franklin Gutierrez (2.228 NRuns: -0.216 hitting, 2.444 fielding)
Great day for center fielders: Mitch Maier (2.045 NRuns: -0.555 hitting, 2.600 fielding)

Bad day for 2nd basemen....

Chone Figgins (-3.121 NRuns: -1.447 hitting, -1.674 fielding... also our GOAT)
Alberto Callaspo (-1.897 NRuns: -1.197 hitting, -0.700 fielding)

Welcome back, Milton Bradley (1.716 NRuns: -0.323 hitting, 2.039 fielding)
... oh... it's you: Jack Wilson (-0.611 NRuns: -1.223 hitting, 0.612 fielding)

We also kind of gave the game away: KCR Luckbox (1.298 NRuns)
SEA hitting: -4.833 NRuns

******

And that's the Mariners' performance in a nutshell. One run in garbage time, knocked in by former Royal and current bench-hog Mike Sweeney, and nothing against the hittable Kyle Davies, who had pretty much an identically ordinary night to Felix Hernandez... only Hernandez watched a ball leave the yard and made a defensive miscue to help bring in another run. And that was pretty much the difference, as neither lineup had much else to offer.

Chone Figgins had a bad game defensively, letting several key balls get by him, but this is hardly just his fault. Aside from Sweendawg, only Rob Johnson of all people had an overall positive contribution at the plate today. This team doesn't need hitters so much as they just need to HIT.

Housefull

There have always been newer and newer ways of promoting the film. For that the production houses are ready to spend money and are ready to innovate as well. Now, speaking about 'Housefull', they have also come up with such a unique idea. The leading stars of the film - Deepika Padukone, Lara Dutta, Akshay Kumar, Ritiesh Deshmukh and Jiah Khan along with Arjun Rampal will be going to spend almost

Nonviolence and multitasking

We humans don't actually multitask, but we can switch our attention from one task to another with blinding speed, giving the illusion to ourselves and others that we are in fact multitasking. Organizations, however, happily multitask by agreeing that certain goals need to be worked on simultaneously and then assigning each task to different people.

When the United Farm Workers tried to unionize migrant workers they engaged in a massive set of actions and components of the campaign, and they won. Dolores Huerta and Cesar Chavez (pictured on either side of another activist singing) did enormous numbers of public speaking events. Others were trained in and they spoke also, across the country. As a 17-year-old, I attended one such talk at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis and felt like I had both responsibility and agency by participating in a consumer boycott of grapes and wine. Untold millions of Americans were empowered and in turn empowered the UFW in that way. At the same time, UFW workers were engaged in nonviolent actions and some campaigners were involved in lobbying. UFW lawyers fought in the courtrooms.

And when Infact decided to take on Nestles and get them to stop marketing infant formula to poor mothers whose babies were not going to be helped by switching from breast milk to Nestles products, the campaigners worked on legislative lobbying, public education and a public boycott. This involved research, media activism, grassroots recruitment, and citizen action. They earned an agreement from Nestles, stopping the objectionable behavior (one of which pictured here was hiring actors to play nurses, pretending that the medical community was recommending formula instead of mothers milk).

They did the same thing in a subsequent campaign with GE and its nuclear weapons division, a far more ambitious target. When all the previous networks and skills were brought to bear and carried out on a disciplined long term basis, they succeeded.

Multipronged campaigns are almost always more successful. The key is to interlock them so that they reinforce the message each time, with each person, each action, each bit of outreach. Coordination and emphasis is crucial. What costs, and what pays off? What can you deliver and what do you ask for?

There is no one mastermind of a campaign, though the person with a vision can prompt the collective mastermind. Jody Williams
was heading a nongovernmental Los Angeles-based aid group in 1992 when she was hired to direct the International Campaign to Ban Landmines. She assembled what Lewis Thomas originally called a hive mentality of others and formed the largest coalition of NGOs ever into this campaign, resulting ultimately in the first grassroots campaign that produced an international law. She had more than 1,000 NGOs helping her think about how to move the campaign from problem recognition to proposed solution to success. It was a global effort and it worked and continues to work.

So, even with a good idea and a brilliant leader, many minds and many types of thinking must be coordinated to produce nonviolent victory. Getting stuck in one type of action, a one-pronged campaign, is a recipe for burnout, failure and sad ineffectiveness. More good minds bringing knowledge of legal, legislative, media, educational, direct action elements of a campaign to the collective table are usually how we see a nonviolent win.

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-25-2010 (Chicago White Sox 3, Seattle 2)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEAJason Vargas -0.6030.000-0.6030.0000.0005.3220
SEAAdam Moore -0.6650.1240.000-0.7890.0000.000
SEACasey Kotchman -0.2840.5060.0000.068-0.8580.000
SEAChone Figgins -0.799-0.4210.000-0.3780.0000.000
SEAJose Lopez 0.017-0.1200.0000.1370.0000.000
SEAMatt Tuiasosopo0.308-0.6960.0001.0040.0000.000
SEAEric Byrnes 1.367-0.7840.0002.1510.0000.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez 1.3490.2020.0001.1470.0000.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki 0.427-0.4790.0000.9060.0000.000
SEAMike Sweeney 0.0800.0800.0000.0000.0000.000
SEASEA Luckbox0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAKen Griffey Jr-0.477-0.4770.0000.0000.0000.000
SEASean White -0.5030.000-0.5030.0000.00017.151
SEABrandon League 0.1140.0000.1140.0000.0003.613


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
CWSJohn Danks -0.0920.000-0.3430.2510.0004.9224
CWSAJ Pierzynski-1.439-1.4390.0000.0000.0000.000
CWSPaul Konerko 2.4972.4290.0000.0680.0000.000
CWSGordon Beckham 0.546-0.0780.0000.6240.0000.000
CWSMark Teahen 0.2650.0600.0000.2050.0000.000
CWSAlexei Ramirez 0.325-1.0060.0001.3310.0000.000
CWSJuan Pierre 0.767-0.4560.0001.0080.2150.000
CWSAlex Rios -0.275-0.0950.000-0.2810.1010.000
CWSCarlos Quentin -0.562-0.9860.0000.4240.0000.000
CWSAndruw Jones -0.594-0.5940.0000.0000.0000.000
CWSCWS Luckbox0.4730.4730.0000.0000.0000.000
CWSOzzie Guillen0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
CWSBobby Jenks 0.1330.0000.1330.0000.0003.453
 US Cellular Field2.3750.0000.000-2.3750.0000.000


He blasted off on the bullpen again: Paul Konerko (2.497 NRuns: 2.429 hitting, 0.068 fielding)
Godspeed, Tyler Flowers: AJ Pierzynski (-1.439 NRuns, all hitting)

He can still run them down: Eric Byrnes (1.367 NRuns: -0.784 hitting, 2.151 fielding)
So can he, of course: Franklin Gutierrez (1.349 NRuns: 0.202 hitting, 1.147 fielding)

Please retire:

Mike Sweeney: 0.080 NRuns, all hitting
Ken Griffey Jr: -0.477 NRuns, all hitting

Lowest M's contribution today: Chone Figgins (-0.799 NRuns: -0.421 hitting, -0.378 fielding)

******

There isn't much of a goat today. Even Brandon League can't be blamed for allowing a go-ahead home run to Paul Konerko that had a stiff 22 mph wind to left behind it: Outfield flies become outs 77-80% of the time... at least when there's not a 20 mph wind behind them, and otherwise he was solid.

But rearing its ugly head was a lack of patience by Mariner hitters. Mike Sweeney was the most obvious offender with several bad swings and quick outs, but the team seemed to be patient until around the 5th inning, and then it seemed like everyone swung into 1st, 2nd and 3rd pitch outs. He's by no means one of the better hitters on this team, but kudos to Adam Moore for being one of the few who did take pitches throughout the game (except of course for his RBI single on a 2nd pitch changeup in his 2nd PA).

Perhaps the Mariners figured that being aggressive against strikeout lefty John Danks was better than getting to two strikes, putting the PA in Danks' control and then getting fooled into bad swings... but alas, to the contrary they made Danks' day easier by swinging into easy outs and keeping his pitch count low enough for him to work eight innings. He actually didn't pitch that great of a game (4.92 EXERA), but strong infield defense (2.228 NRuns) and a decent day by Juan Pierre in LF (1.008 NR) plus the Mariners' quick outs helped him breeze through eight frames. A better lineup probably chases Danks after 6 or 7 at most if he's dealing. They don't get impatient after five innings and buy him an extra couple of frames with quick outs.

At this point, there's a lot of calls to bench Ken Griffey Jr and unload Mike Sweeney, as the two aged DH bats are not helping the offense and obviously can't help the fielding. Griffey's not going anywhere as the team has built several promotional nights at Safeco Field around him and thus has an incentive to keep him on the roster... but they can still bench him and use him as just a pinch hitter or a spot DH. Sweeney, on the other hand, hasn't justified the roster spot handed to hit after a hot spring, as his hitting has been anything but hot in limited duty.

However, they're not the only reasons this team hasn't produced at the plate.

- I've mentioned the quick outs.
- I also mentioned the struggles against the changeup, and a couple more of Chone Figgins' outs today came on bad swings against the change.
- Matt Tuiasosopo, filling in for Jack Wilson at SS, hasn't been bad defensively, but his patient hitting value hasn't cashed out, as he's been probably the easiest out in the lineup this side of Junior over the weekend.
- Eric Byrnes has been absolutely empty at the plate save for a few walks, and if not for his defense he'd probably justify a powerflush from the roster.
- Ichiro's aggressive swings early in the count have always been a part of his game, and I'm not going to argue with his particular approach after 3000+ professional hits. But sometimes that approach is going to hurt him and he's going to have games like today where he mostly comes up empty after only 2-3 pitches. To a much smaller extent, this is also true of Jose Lopez, but to Jose's credit he did work a couple counts and has been a little more patient this season.

Really, if anyone should get blamed for this weekend's sweep, it should be the bats for repeatedly coming up empty against White Sox pitchers that could be beaten, especially in a bandbox with a consistently stiff wind out to LF. The starting pitching was terrific, the bullpen got snakebit by spotty control, flyballs and the wind, and the defense was mostly there. The bats, however, came up too empty too often, and got exposed as a bit too easy to beat. They, not the bullpen, are the big problem with the team right now.

Parts of the offense can be obviously improved (the two DH spots), but beyond that there's not a lot of obvious options for improvement. No one in Triple A Tacoma seems capable of stepping into LF or DH, or upgrading the team at catcher. And none of the available options can really do anything about the offensive black hole at SS (Jack Wilson's recent doubles aside), save for the unlikely event that Josh Wilson's really hot April in Tacoma becomes a hot May and is in some way for real.

This is the offense we're stuck with, and most knew that going in. The team was rolling the dice with pitching and defense, and hoping the offense would sneak enough runs across to win games. This team has only topped 4 runs five times in 19 games this season (the expected league average is 4.7 runs/game). Even when Milton Bradley's sore calf heals and he returns to the lineup, this team's still got a few rally-killing holes, some lineup-related and some approach-related, and until they're addressed those holes, scoring is going to be a problem and games are going to be close enough that bullpen cracks are going to continue to ignite losses.

Sure, the opposition can't win if they don't score. But neither can you.

Polo Park CJOB's Move



The plans have finally been revealed for the old CTV building north of Polo Park.

I have always wondered how CJOB managed in the building they have occupied all these years at 930 Portage Avenue. It had no parking and three radio stations operating out of it. Those were: CJOB, Power 97 and Groove FM. Logic alone would dictate a permanent studio space for Charles Adler.

The location at Portage was used as a post office until 1962 when CJOB moved in. Other radio stations have moved frequently over the years. KY58 and 92 Citi FM used to occupy the old CTV/CKY TV building themselves until Moffat Communications sold them off.

For 48 years, CJOB has has used the 930 Portage site to be the number 1 radio station in Canada. Now, they and their sister stations will occupy entire second floor of their formal AM rival's building at Polo Park. A total of 17,000 square feet will house the three radio stations and The tower and dishes atop the old CKY building will now be used bu Corus Entertainment to broadcast its three signals.

The move to the Polo Park location triggers further work on the old arena site as well. A 85,000 square foot retail expansion will take place on the the footprint north of the CKY building.

The big question now is whether the developments on the old arena site accelerate the Canad Inns Stadium redevelopment.

~~~

Sorry for the delay in posts. Holidays needed to be taken.

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Nonviolence and national defense


On the question of nonviolence and our national defense, at least consider the Center for Defense Information and their approach. They are NOT nonviolent, but their much more accurate ideas about homeland security would cut TWO THIRDS of our military budget. These are all high-ranking retired military and are quite amazing in their candor and assessments. All of them are career military, not pacifists like me. Or look at the remarkable work done by analyst Frida Berrigan on aspects of how our military spending negatively affects our national security. Her mentor and colleague, William Hartung, also produces excellent reports showing the insecurity produced by many of the programs sold to us as security.

Could we have a completely nonviolent national defense? Not if we wish to defend our consumption. Not if we wish to take more than our share. Nonviolence is predicated upon justice, even as it offers the best method of seeking justice. And even if we were totally just, we still would have to be prepared to engage in massive nonviolent noncooperation if some foreign power decided to invade. So it wouldn't be easy, but it would be possible under the right circumstances.

Did it work for anyone ever? Yes. Gandhi showed us and others took his example. During the long era of decolonization nonviolence was used to get democracy and liberation in Zambia, Ghana, the Philippines, South Africa, Iran, and all the nations of the Velvet Revolution who tossed out the puppet governments of the Soviet Union. Those struggles took some time, but so does violence.

What most say now is that nonviolence would not prevent an initial invasion of the US and so we must keep our violent defense. As a pacifist I cannot support that, but I completely understand the argument and its logic. This is why I refer people to the CDI analysis. It addresses the only situation where nonviolence would not have a good success rate compared to violence in the short term, in my estimation. (photo: general strike, 1911, Liverpool)

I would argue that the more justice and equality we promote nonviolently globally--that is, end military aid to others and just send humanitarian aid that will truly help--the less and less likely it is that anyone would want to attack us, either in revenge or to invade.

Civilian-based defense, entirely nonviolent but based on organized nonviolent noncooperation, is hard to do without preparation and we are not prepared. The link offers a pdf document by Gene Sharp, the conceiver of CBD, and is a blueprint for nonviolent defense against invasion and occupation.

Believing in nonviolence is not believing in an unrealistic option; indeed, given the ecological and economic realities, it is the ONLY realistic option in the long run. We'd better start learning about it now.

Saturday, April 24, 2010

Sajid's 'Housefull'

Innovation is the name of the game, and there are some expert players to play this game. Sajid Khan is one of them. He is dishing out a 'Housefull' of entertainment, where there will be what no other director has done. Sajid has experimented with a new concept. The concept is of trying out a number of languages in the span of the whole movie. 3 hours showcase more than 3 languages. By the way,

A quick Net Runs look at Jake Peavy


As Dave Cameron noted, Jake Peavy isn't looking so good this season. None of his four starts have looked particularly pretty, and Net Runs confirms that, even granted Peavy's better looking 7.1 inning start in Cleveland, he's done a fairly poor job in all four starts.

OppIPNREXERA
04/07/10CLE5.0-1.5167.09
04/12/10@TOR5.2-1.8846.88
04/17/10@CLE7.1-2.8107.29
04/22/10TBR4.1-1.5647.57


The guy has been a walk machine (a bloated 13.6% of batters faced), and along with a lack of strikeouts (also 13.6%) and a 28.5% line drive rate as of today, it's clear Peavy's struggles aren't any product of bad luck, before you even delve into his velocity or pitch profile... which in turn offers plenty of evidence that something isn't right.

In the meantime, he's costing his team nearly 2 runs per start, and if he can't quickly adjust and resume getting guys out consistently, Peavy might need to look at a DL stint. The White Sox are struggling and need all the help they can get from a struggling pitching staff. Matt Thornton and John Danks can't do all the work ;P

Selling peace and disarmament


When my friend Genny Kortes went to the post office in Vancouver, Washington on tax day, April 15, to protest war taxes, she handed out leaflets, as she has for many years. The postal officials had never stopped her.

This year, she was “helped” by a very belligerent “peace” person (not the person pictured) who so angered everyone that police were called and the postal employees told them to go away and not return.

If we cannot help our own people stay on message and stay calm and centered we lose. Most don’t want to do this, as it’s uncomfortable to tell our compatriots in the movement that they are driving away potential activists. But we are perennially depressed when our movements don’t draw enough participants and if we hope to do that we not only have to have logic and ethics on our side, we need the invitational image.

We need to make peace sexy, attractive, fun, exciting, and alluring—indeed, it’s time to make resistance irresistible. We should be smiling, open, feeding our communities, working to help children, and recruiting regular folks who want to change the world or save the children or protect the planet. They count on us and most of us want to give them that. If we do, we will monitor and intervene on the behaviors of those of us who cannot maintain enough self-discipline to avoid alienating our good fellow citizens.

The angry activists who show their rage and argue down anyone in earshot are depressed and they simply need to grow some hope rather than participate in such a self-fulfilling prophesy—You people are stupid and don’t care and I’m disgusted by your lack of involvement! That is the message that guarantees its own outcome.

The minute we start to debate, we have lost. We will not argue down someone with a hard and violent position. Those who show up to heckle us are not going to be converted. Their behavior is its own punishment, to themselves and to their support for war and injustice.

Our job is to check our own compatriots so that we aren’t dismissed as cranks, as dangerous, as temper tantrums looking for a place to explode. Bring us happy children and tie-dyed shirts, beaming grandmothers and caring peacewalkers. This is when we look like a good bet for our good-hearted neighbors.

Seattle Mariners Net Runs for 4-24-2010 (Chicago White Sox 5, Seattle 4)

TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
SEADoug Fister -0.7180.000-0.7180.0000.0005.3124
SEARob Johnson -0.546-0.6840.0000.1380.0000.000
SEACasey Kotchman 1.8611.5670.0000.2940.0000.000
SEAChone Figgins 0.546-0.1880.0000.7340.0000.000
SEAJose Lopez 1.8510.7600.0000.9900.1010.000
SEAMatt Tuiasosopo -0.115-0.4780.0000.3630.0000.000
SEAEric Byrnes -2.126-1.2070.000-0.9190.0000.000
SEAFranklin Gutierrez 1.1260.2810.0000.8450.0000.000
SEAIchiro Suzuki 0.158-0.7300.0000.8880.0000.000
SEAKen Griffey Jr-0.627-0.6270.0000.0000.0000.000
SEASEA Luckbox0.2820.2820.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADon Wakamatsu0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEAJack Wilson 0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
SEADavid Aardsma -0.0450.000-0.0450.0000.0005.132


TeamPlayerNet RunsHitPitchDefBaseEXERAPitOuts
CWSFreddy Garcia2.1930.0002.0560.1370.0002.1121
CWSAJ Pierzynski-1.056-0.9550.000-0.1010.0000.000
CWSPaul Konerko-1.764-0.1230.000-1.139-0.5020.000
CWSGordon Beckham-0.459-0.9500.0000.4910.0000.000
CWSMark Teahen0.1050.1050.0000.0000.0000.000
CWSAlexei Ramirez1.4471.2550.0000.431-0.2390.000
CWSJuan Pierre-0.8430.1110.000-0.497-0.4570.000
CWSAlex Rios2.5352.0240.0000.649-0.1380.000
CWSAndruw Jones0.5690.4820.0000.0870.0000.000
CWSCarlos Quentin-0.422-0.4220.0000.0000.0000.000
CWSCWS Luckbox0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
CWSOzzie Guillen-0.1320.000-0.1320.0000.0000.000
CWSJayson Nix0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
CWSSergio Santos0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0004.563
CWSBobby Jenks-0.1160.000-0.1160.0000.0005.533
 US Cellular Field3.7040.0000.000-3.7040.0000.000


Hey look! The Expected ERAs for today's performances are now included in the charts! They are of course under the label EXERA, and should be easy to find as they'll have a non-zero number in a new column on their right: PitOuts are the number of outs the team netted while a pitcher was on the hill, and is used to determine that pitcher's EXERA. If I haven't yet explained the formula in full (and yes I've got to go back and check), I will make sure to do so soon.

Player of the Game: U.S. Cellular Field (3.704 NRuns, all on bogus as hell wind-aided home runs SCREW THAT PLACE)

ChiSox Player of the Game: Alex Rios (2.535 NRuns: 2.024 hitting, 0.649 fielding, -0.138 running)

For a guy that's finished he sure pitched well: Freddy Garcia (2.193 NRuns: 2.056 pitching, 0.137 fielding)

Good thing this guy hit a HR because wow did he suck otherwise: Paul Konerko (-1.764 NRuns: -0.123 hitting, -1.139 fielding, -0.502 running)

Mariners Player of the Game: Casey Kotchman (1.861 NRuns: 1.567 hitting, 0.294 fielding)

Goat: Eric Byrnes (-2.126 NRuns: -1.207 hitting, -0.919 fielding)

******

- What do you get when your erratic flyball-happy closer takes the hill with a two run lead, an 18 mph wind out to left field and some good hitters due up? Why, absolute disaster, of course!

Aardsma didn't actually do all that worse or better in this walkoff loss than he usually does. He's always flyball prone. He's always walk prone. He's always throwing gas and striking people out. And with that every batter he faces seems like a roll of the dice. Most of the time since his 2009 arrival, he's succeeded. Sometimes, the flyballs and walks produce disaster.

Add in a stadium that would fit in well in the Cal League, and some good ChiSox hitters, and failure becomes distinctly possible. David Aardsma is still who he is, and who he is can close out his fair share of games. Two wind-aided flyballs over the LF fence later (though Rios did put a decent charge in his; that might have been able to leave many yards with no wind), I'm not any more or less concerned about him than I was before today. He hit 97 on the radar gun, and he was spotty with his control, film at 11.

- So after a few good games in the field, Eric Byrnes sure picked a bad time to go and have as bad a game as possible, as he was totally useless at the plate and also had a poor game in the field. With the team looking for spots to upgrade the roster, the last thing he wanted to do was look expendable, especially against an ordinary SP like....

- ... Freddy Garcia. For the second night in a row, the Mariners got owned by a pitcher with weak stuff who makes his living by nibbling at the edges of the zone. I didn't watch the game but decided to examine the pitch F/X and pitch by pitch data on MLB.com Gameday to try and get an idea as to why the lineup only got two hits in 7 innings off an otherwise hittable Freddy Garcia.

In what's becoming a recurring theme, the Mariners got eaten alive by the changeup. Several of Freddy's swinging strikes came on that pitch (he put awa Chone Figgins on strikes twice with the changeup). But to the M's credit, they took a lot of pitches... probably too many. They took a lot of called strikes, and let Freddy get to strike two uncontested quite a bit. Perhaps that was the idea, to try and get him to throw as many pitches per plate appearance as possible.

Many of the outs in play came on fastballs along the outside edge of the zone (though Junior's outs in play came mostly on the change), and the M's just could not take advantage of the jetstream, with only two balls (Franklin Gutierrez's HR and Jose Lopez's line drive RBI double, which BTW came on a 1st pitch slider) being hit to left field. Freddy got a lot of pop ups, and all the other flyballs were hit harmlessly to center. The lineup improved on yesterday's flailing failboat at the plate, and played it more patient with Freddy. The patience didn't pay off, and at the same time their struggles with hitting the changeup once again came into play.

Freddy's EXERA was around the 1's for most of this start and only reached the 2's towards the end. Casey Kotchman's RBI double (helped by a not-so-wise fan along the RF line) was the only serious damage by the M's off the bullpen.

- As for Doug Fister, who after yet another strong 8 inning start is definitely locked into the rotation for the foreseeable future... his outing was once again pedestrian per EXERA. Perhaps one item that could be improved with Net Runs over time is how line drives are counted against the pitcher. The methodology of assigning a value to each ball in play and handing that to the pitcher is fine, but not all line drives are perfectly equal, nor are all flyballs or groundballs. For example, Doug Fister allowed six line drives... but five of those came with the bases empty, and ultimately the ChiSox only scored two runs against him. Four of the six line drives came with one out and the other with two outs. Here's the composite run expectancy for US Cellular Field:

Situation0 outs1 out2 outs
Empty0.5470.2960.114
1xx0.9740.5710.239
x2x1.1240.7010.340
xx31.3820.9450.370
12x1.6011.0130.477
1x31.8161.2280.502
x231.9661.3580.603
1232.4791.7270.807


In US Cellular, I assign each line drive a value of 0.503 runs and give that to the pitcher. That's the average run expectancy added by all line drives in MLB, park adjusted to this horrifyingly hitter friendly South Side bandbox. But notice the run expectancy with the bases empty and one out, or two out. 0.296. 0.114. And notice the difference with a man on 1st and one out or two out. 0.571. 0.239. Not quite 0.503 big, is it? A double with one out and empty bases might be close to that value, but not with two outs.

The thing is that, to accurately assess the value by base and out would require an entire run expectancy chart for each batted ball type, and then conversions for every single situation, for every single park. And in the end, I'm not convinced I would have accurate, consistent values. It may be worth a shot down the line, but that's an example of how much tedious and lengthy work the slightest adjustment will require at this stage. The methodology that produced this method alone was a lengthy, tedious, weeks long process.

That is not to say I won't eventually work to do it, and see what happens. But this should illustrate why I stick with the current process even with the knowledge that there may be a more accurate way to assign value. As it stands, the current methodology is still fairly accurate and has done a consistent job of assigning overall value to a performance. And it does reward fielders in kind for catching a typically difficult to catch ball, even when a fielder happens to be in the right spot to catch it, or getting a ball back in quickly and preventing damaging extra bases.

To wit and to the contrary, when is a line drive allowed by a pitcher ever a good indicator, even if it's caught for an out? The batter timed and anticpated a pitch well enough to hit it hard on a line, a batted ball type that falls for a hit 70-75% of the time. That indicates the pitcher didn't fool the batter.

So anyway, after all that, Doug Fister allowed line drives on 25% of his balls in play, and that's not a good ratio... but he did only walk one, did strike out four and did get a lot of groundballs. The line drives are what lands his EXERA for the second consecutive 8 inning start despite an actual line that looks much better. His defense is that good (well, except for Eric Byrnes today, but still).

 

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