Consensus: Drawing the Venn

In the world of nonviolence, we either believe in the power of the mass movement and try to recruit toward that, or we stay in our tiny pure sectarian niches, willing to be happy in our own heavenward trajectory. The paradox arises when we consider that the more pure our image is in one sense--that we absolutely refuse to physically attack anyone and we concordantly refuse to support any party physically attacking anyone--the more we can convince our opponents to dialog and negotiate because they do not fear us.

However, as in the 2008 film The Duchess, about an 18th century wife of the most powerful peer in the British political system, when the woman (Georgiana Cavendish, Duchess of Devonshire, played by lead actress Keira Knightley) enters a room and declares that she wants to make a deal, the 5th Duke of Devonshire, played by Ralph Fiennes, looks at her quizzically and says, "I don't make deals. Why should I? I am in charge of everything." What does this remind us of as we contemplate our image and our opponents? Hmmm...could it be that even those who are purely nonviolent must induce fear in the opponent?

Of course. It is a sort of bell curve. Too little fear and the Dukes can ignore us. Too much fear and they start shooting instantly. We need the Goldilocks approach. Not too hot, not too cold: we want that fear to be Just Right. But it's not a simple quantum of fear we need to engender; the quality of fear is paramount. Indeed, it is arguable that rather than the bell curve, we need to create a simple monotonic graph but it must be of the sort of fear that does not enable him to better rally his violent forces against you.

If the fear is growing that you are armed and hunting him and his forces, those forces can be convinced to attack you. If the fear is growing that you will make his power wither away the longer the struggle persists--and you give him every reason to believe it will persist--he will feel the pressure to negotiate now. But if he feels that the threat to him is already existential (e.g. Gaddafi in Libya), you've crossed the line of death, to use one of that dictator's old lines from the mid-1980s.

And how do you build a coalition? It needs one point of consensus. In Egypt that was getting Mubarak out with democratic, people-based nonviolence. In Libya, they are struggling to formulate a vision. Since the armed revolution is serious and it's taking casualties, the assumption is that they will decide the future of Libya if they prevail. This means everyone else has little to say, another indication of the anti-democratic nature of violence. This means the popular will is confused. That is the case in most violent rebellions. In nonviolent mass struggle, a coalition is necessary for victory; there is no substitute for people power in the case of nonviolence. If you don't have it, you lose. In violence, you can seize power even if you are not the majority, as long as the majority isn't engaged against you. This is not a democratic approach.

So consensus is far more important to nonviolent success than it is to violence. It requires a vision and a commitment to actualizing that vision. "Without a vision, there is no focus to a consensus and no reason for one" (Williams, 2007, p. ix).

In the end, a way to visualize the creation of consensus around a vision is to draw a Venn diagram with all the circles representing individuals in a team or larger constituencies in a community, statewide, national or transnational effort. The area of overlap helps bound the vision. Achieving that overlap is easy in some cases, tricky in others, but without it, an effort is not based on consensus and will lurch along rather than move steadily ahead.

References

Williams, R. B. (2007). More than 50 ways to build team consensus (2nd ed.) Thousand Oaks, CA: Corwin Press.

FALTU - Miss India Puja Gupta's first film in Bollywood

Like her predecessors, former Miss India, Puja Gupta will soon make her Bollywood debut. Sushmita Sen and Priyanka Chopra are the other former Miss India recipients who have also made it successfully to Bollywood.The film represents today's young generation, the dreams today's youngsters see and the way they peruse them to materialize them one day.Puja said, the minute she read the script, she

Shah Rukh Khan confident of winning the World Cup

After India’s thumping win over their arch rivals Pakistan, Shah Rukh Khan has expressed confidence that India will also win the World Cup. He watched the match with his friends from Bollywood at his home Mannat. But he plans to go to the Wankhede Stadium to watch the final match with his kids.He has also bought a T-shirt to cheer up India. He said that his kids are also very eager to go watch

Ekta Kapoor wants parts of Ragini MMS to be re-shot

One of the most talked-about films these days is Ekta Kapoor’s Ragini MMS. The shooting of the film is going on in full swing. But the producer is unhappy with the way some of the hot scenes are shot. Ekta thinks these are the most important scenes for the film, which will heat up the screens for sure.
The scenes that Ekta is talking about are those around which the entire story is based. That

IKEA Opens 2012

The future IKEA site

IKEA has finally announced that year that its store in Winnipeg will open in 2012. Originally, the date was given as between 2011 and 2013.

One only has to drive down Kenaston a few times to realize work has continued all winter on dismantling the rail tracks, the Clarke trucking depot and the Zirino's truck building are mostly dismantled. Other works has proceeded all around the proposed IKEA site.

There has been no indication of what building techniques will be used for the store when it goes up but their location going up in Denver, Colorado will be using geo-thermal and is aiming for zero emissions. It would be great if the store here makes that their same goal.

The CBC story mentions that a 16 screen movie theatre is a possible tenant for the site as well. The number mentioned seems to be very specific. One wonders if all we are waiting for there is an actual announcement.

Newport Pagnell Town FC

Newport Pagnell Town 2 Peterborough Northern Star 1 - United Counties League, Premier Division

Newport Pagnell is a town  in the Borough of Milton Keynes It is separated by the M1 motorway from Milton Keynes itself, though part of the same urban area. Newport Pagnell services on the M1 are named after the town. At one time, Newport Pagnell was one of the largest towns in the County of Buckinghamshire (the assizes of the County were occasionally held there) though today, despite its own substantial expansion, it has been completely dwarfed by the growth of Milton Keynes. There were also at one time two hospitals in Newport Pagnell and six fairs were held for the townsfolk throughout the year.

The Swans were founded in 1963 as Newport Pagnell Wanderers. In 1964 they joined the North Buckinghamshire Football League, winning the Division Three shield at their first attempt. When the only other local team (based at the Aston Martin works) folded, many of their players joined the Swans, who won Division Two and then One in successive seasons, before becoming the almost unbeatable champions for three seasons. In 1972 the Swans joined the South Midlands League, playing at youth club facilities before moving to the current Willen Road ground. At the same time the name changed from Wanderers to Town and in 1973 Newport Pagnell Town joined the United Counties Football League.

This midweek jaunt to Buckinghamshire was facilitated by a car journey. The directions on the club website are accurate and having left the M1 at Junction 14 it was a relatively short journey to the ground. We arrive a little under one hour prior to the scheduled 19:45 kick off. The return of British Summer Time a couple of days previously was very welcome as it assisted in getting the required photographs.

Conifers border most of the ground and these trees had been cut in height recently, providing a fresh pine aroma on a mild evening. Both sides of the ground feature small covered seated stands, whereas both ends have no cover at all. Behind one of the goals is the solitary turnstile and pay hut.

The clubhouse and changing room complex is set back from behind this end, adjacent to the car park. The licensed bar boasts three large TV screens and on this particular evening, the England v Ghana match at Wembley was being shown. In addition to the usual crisps and nuts, tea and coffee was also available here but no food was sold. I understand that rolls are usually available.

The match proved to be a decent encounter and this neutral believes that Peterborough Northern Star were unlucky not to have got something from the match. The club, that can trace it origins back to both the Northam and Star Brickworks, took the lead after 18 minutes with a fine goal from the left flank by Josh Moreman.

The home side's Daren Dykes levelled from the penalty spot a couple of minutes after the break and claimed all three points in the 89th minute with a splendid goal from Darren Lynch, when the ball was lifted over the keeper. A prompt getaway on the final whistle ensured a smooth return journey. I was back home at Cheshunt at around 23:00.

Admission: £5:00
Programme: £1:00 (32 pages)
Attendance: 70
Tea: 70p

Photographic Archive

Preity Zinta pictures - Guinness World Records - Ab India Todega

Preity Zinta will host the Guinness World Records - Ab India Todega show. This is an Indian version of the original Guinness World Records Show. Preity Zinta was especially chosen to play the host for the show as the producers think that she represents the true spirit of what it takes to be the contestants on the show.
As a promotional event Salman Khan attended the show. He was dressed in a

Libya: Wrong turn

US President Barack Obama, right, and Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi pictured during the G8/G5 summit in L'Aquila, Italy Thursday July 9, 2009. (AP Photo/ Michael Gottschalk/Pool)
Who could possibly believe that after Tunisia and then Egypt showed that Arab civil society was capable of disciplined nonviolent regime change in less than three weeks with fewer than 100 mortalities each, that it would be a good idea to use violence in Libya?

Oh, Obama, I guess. Since the Arab Street had so successfully outflanked the war system, apparently the Libyan Arab Street needed to be derailed and brought back to the place where we can properly stereotype it as rabidly violent and undisciplined. Nice going, Obomber.

The conflict industry seems to generally panic at the use of nonviolent civil society resistance, especially when it's massive and persistent. And even some of the so-called peace people jump to call for violence in these cases, despite overwhelming evidence that violence is simply not the solution.

Some colleagues in peace education actually supported a no-fly zone. This example of analytical deficit is disappointing at best; who do we think enforces a no-fly zone? How is it enforced? Who benefits and who dies? The answers lead straight back to the problem of violence. It always sounds cleaner and clearer on paper and from the talking heads than it looks like on the ledger sheets of human profit and loss after the fact.

Others actually believe the rebels need armed support. How do you make nonviolent resistance irrelevant and nonexistent? Ramp up violence. If the US wants to show that the terrorists are actually correct, we should make sure we pour arms into a conflict in Muslim lands and, just to make sure all Muslims get it, we should send in pilots in war birds to bomb.

Naturally, more and more Libyans will take advantage of the 'help' offered by Obama and they will mostly do so in one of two ways.

Al Qa'ida types will use US military involvement to rally Muslims of all nations in opposition. This may not seem logical to Americans, but watch. It's just what will happen. We are once again the hated Crusaders, thanks to Obama.

Gadafi will use this to solidify his own power. He will be the champion of his people, standing up to the Washington bully. He is once again the brave leader, thanks to Obama.

We are now conducting massive violence that is making the armed rebellion more protracted, giving it hope, calling its bluff, and thereby ensuring it will end with more dead and wounded than if the armed revolt had simply been crushed or deterred promptly.

Is our Bomber-in-Chief mad? Stupid? Evil? No, just beholden and uncreative. He owes his power and position to forces that represent not democracy but an oligarchy that profits from the war system. This is the lobbying power that selects its puppets from amongst the most charismatic yet malleable, and, sadly, the independent aura cast by Barack Obama in 2008 is revealed again and again to be the chimera of the new millennium. Yes, he's smart. And basically sane and probably genuinely if superficially nice. But getting elected to the presidency of the US probably also requires more moral flexibility than anyone with a strong conscience can muster.

Perhaps we will see the best outcome of the current spiked levels of polarized incivility in Washington DC and our government will shut down. When Obama was slow to respond to the nonviolent uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, it gave nonviolence a chance to succeed in an environment much more untainted by external meddling. Egyptian revolutionaries were free to embrace and thereby coopt and defang their own military. I know it's a pipe dream, but I fantasize about a long government shutdown that leads us out of so many violent conflicts. We are, after all, by far the largest arms dealer in the world. Close it down and violence might take some time off. We can dream.

Lara Dutta to host ‘Extreme Makeover’ on the small screen

By playing the host to the Indian version of the reality show, Extreme Makeover, Lara Dutta will become yet another actress from Bollywood, who will make her debut on the small screen. She has not signed the contract officially as of now, because the talks about the remuneration and the duration are still on. However it is certain that the contract will land in Lara’s lap.Since her marriage,

Swiss Chalet Returns to Winnipeg

Swiss Chalet is a large Canadian restaurant chain founded in Toronto in 1954. The store is ubiquitous in Ontario along with its sister restaurant Harvey's, a hamburger joint.

Just over 12 years ago, Swiss Chalet and Harvey's retreated from the scene in Winnipeg save for an express location at the Winnipeg James Armstrong Richardson International Airport for both restaurants. That location is slated to close when airport functions shift to the new terminal. There doesn't seem to be a plan to open the concept when the move happens.

I have pointed out in this blog that development agencies should be looking for shops and restaurants that draw people. I am not sure why Swiss Chalet withdrew from the Winnipeg market years ago. Their location on Pembina Highway seemed to be well used. I can't say the same about their Harvey's location on the same street or the Home Depot locations. The restaurant chain never seemed to catch on in Manitoba.

The Yes! Winnipeg agency is taking credit for the $1.6 million Swiss Chalet restaurant coming to the city at the Kenaston Common location near Costco. The restaurant will employ about 80 people. Further city locations are hinted at.

The Yes agency has been around for three months and is taking credit for about there or four companies finding contacts, financing and the like to open in the city or expand operations. While some of the initial announcements are good, a really big fish is still to be caught. After a year, it will be interesting to see if a $50 to $100 million initiative lands in the city. Too often we have lost some of these projects to other cities.

I should point out that the worst meal I have had in the last several years was a Swiss Chalet dinner at the Toronto airport. Other family members says they weren't impressed by a mean at Swiss Chalet at Winnipeg's airport. I certainly hope that a full scale restaurant proves to be a more satisfactory food choice for people in the Kenaston area.

It would appear the restaurant opening at Kenaston Common will fill the last available space in that area. All eyes now turn to the Ikea site.

Amisha Patel looks hot in saree!

Amisha Patel is one of the better known actresses of Bollywood. Her debut film Kaho Na Pyaar Hai with Hrithik Roshan was a bit hit. Her second film was also a when she was cast opposite Sunny Deol in Gadar - Ek Prem Kahani. However, her performance in Gadar was more appreciated and she certainly deserved it all more.
She got more films after the success of these two films. However, her

Tusshar Kapoor fights with director Sagar Ballary

Tusshar Kapoor is an actor with a cool tempered, at least he hasn’t been known otherwise. However, a fight with director Sagar Ballary proved that he can lose his temper too. These two almost came to blows in broad daylight and in front of everyone present there. But no one dared interfere in the fight. This took place at a shopping mall in Mumbai, the place where they were shooting.Actually,

Ileana - latest photos

Ending war & stuff

Most of what needed to be invented to end war has been invented. Now what we need to do is to spread the knowledge of these developments and inspire even more people to join the ongoing work of changing the behavior of individuals and governments (Shifferd, 2011, p. 11).

"That was horrible. If you wanna end war 'n' stuff, you gotta sing better."
--Arlo Guthrie, comment to the audience during the live version of Alice's Restaurant

So, a minor project--end war. Impossible, you say. Necessary, I say. And it takes practice, as we see Through the Looking Glass:

Alice laughed, "There's no use trying," she said, "one can't believe impossible things."

"I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."

Kurt Vonnegut noted once that after Slaughterhouse Five came out he was standing in the punchline, so to speak, at a party, and another in line asked if the novel was an antiwar book. Yes, said Vonnegut. Why don't you write an anti-glacier book? asked the man, obviously pronouncing that being antiwar was as practical as being anti-glacier.

So, we ask, how do we transform believing impossible things to achieving impossible things? Try this six-point program and get back to me in 20 years:
1. Establish peace, nonviolence, and conflict resolution education in all schools from K-graduate school.
2. Fund ever-increasing numbers of training programs for citizens who wish to be part of a multinational nonviolent de-escalation force that operates in conflict zones.
3. Shift funding from military intelligence to civil society conflict intelligence and turn that knowledge into ongoing Societal Conflict Early Warning Reports.
4. Ban all weapons of mass destruction and use powerful economic sanctions to enforce the ban, enabled by UN inspection teams that have access to all nations.
5. Deny the shifting of costs from corporations and consumers to taxpayers and otherwise pass laws that mandate internalizing all costs, so that the US military, for example, can no longer be the security service for Exxon and other huge profitmaking ventures.
6. Develop a coalition of political, religious, labor, business, academic and environmental organizations that put increasing nonviolent muscle behind these sorts of initiatives in the US and in all other countries.

See? Six very possible and very difficult and very long-term things before the war system has us for breakfast. If we start seriously today, this could take up to 20 years, but since the war system has been developing for the past several thousand years, that seems fairly quick, now doesn't it? Fund it by pilfering from the war budgets in small amounts (to them), just a few $billion at a time...soon they will find it hard to justify most of their budgets and--voila!--we are on the road to economic recovery and environmental sustainability.

References
Shifferd, Kent D. (2011). From war to peace: A guide to the next hundred years. Jefferson, NC: McFarland.

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Brighton & Hove Albion 1 Notts County 0 - Football League, One

Brighton is located on the south coast of England, and together with its immediate neighbour Hove forms the city of Brighton and Hove. The ancient settlement of Brighthelmston dates from before the Domesday Book (1086), but it emerged as an important health resort during the 18th century and became a popular destination for day-trippers after the arrival of the railway in 1841. Brighton experienced rapid population growth reaching a peak of over 160,000 by 1961. Modern Brighton forms part of a conurbation stretching along the coast, with a population of around 480,000. Brighton is a popular place to visit, welcoming 8 million tourists each year. With its hotels, restaurants, shops and entertainment facilities, which additionally serve a substantial business conference industry. The modern city of Brighton and Hove is also an educational centre with two universities and many English language schools.

Withdean Stadium is an athletics stadium in the Brighton suburb of Withdean. The capacity of the ground is 8,850 all seated. the stadium is a temporary home for Brighton & Hove Albion before a new stadium is built in nearby Falmer. The club's former stadium, the Goldstone Ground was sold for redevelopment in1997 by the board at the time (none of whom any longer has any involvement with the club).

Catching a train from London Bridge to Preston Park facilitated an evening jaunt after work to Sussex. Our prebooked match tickets included vouchers, which meant that the journey south of Haywards Heath was free of charge. To reach the stadium from Preston Park Station takes between ten and fifteen minutes. The walk takes you north along London Road before passing under a railway bridge, bringing you at eastern end of the ground.

On arrival I took advantage of the daylight and with the help of a friendly steward, managed to get some photographs from inside the ground. After this we adjourned to the pub adjacent to the ground. For a pub on top of a football ground (literally – Ed), the Sportsman was ver reasonably priced. I enjoyed Harvey’s Sussex bitter at £2:05 a pint. The pub also doubles as a carvery restaurant. For £3.69 I was able to enjoy, roast beef, turkey and glazzed gammon, accompanied by an abundance of vegetables, yorkshire pudding and stuffing! To be honest, this is pretty much the only facility in the vicinity of the ground and compared to the standard fare of burgers (£3:00 in the ground), the carvery represents extremely good value.

In claiming a narrow 1-0 victory, Brighton extended their winning run in the league to six matches. In truth, this was a hard fought scrappy encounter. The home side failed to take advantage of a couple of very good opportunities in the first period and this could have proved costly. The decisive strike came from Inigo Calderon when he swept in a 63^rd minute cross from the left. This win enabled Brighton to move ten points clear at the top of League One.

It is relatively easy to get back to both Victoria and London Bridge after midweek matches from Preston Park and I was through London and at Cheshunt just after midnight. I now look forward to visiting the new Brighton & Hove Albion ground at Falmer in the near future.

Attendance: 7264
Admission: £25:00
Programme: £3-00 (64 pages A5 size)
Fare: £7:90 Day Return from London Bridge to Haywards Heath (Goldcard Discount). The journey south of Haywards Heath was covered by the match ticket.

Photographic Archive

Shopper's Drug Mart Osborne Village

Shopper's Drug Mart in the Osborne Village

There was a brief mention in the newspaper and a blog post about this application by Shopper's Drug Mart and their expansion of their Osborne Village location on Roslyn Road.

The plan is to add 8,522 square feet to the present 10,048 square feet. This will change the store to a two floor format with few parking slots and a pedestrian access to the businesses behind it.

It is a good plan for a busy corner and a 24 hour store. Many people going to Shopper's now actually live close to the store and walk or bike to it. To this end, the store has said it will include bike racks for patrons.

More parking spaces is not always welcome. In this case, the increased commercial density and tips of the hat to pedestrians and people using bikes is a preferred option.

While the store expansion is a good thing, I hope the design is a little better than what is present now. By this I refer to the frosted windows. I believe the store should be much more open to the busy street than it is now. While I respect the need for privacy for the pharmacy, some of the rest of the store could stand to be visible through clear windows. I think this is an important feature for safety within the store as well as outside it. And given that the Osborne Village is increasingly a busy place 24 hours a day, it is good to show there is life in the building. Walking by the windows now is like walking past a blank wall.

Still, congratulations are in order to Shopper's for an approach that will sense for the area. It will make the area even more attractive for people to live there.

Consensus: When it counts

Consensus is not a nonviolent phenomenon all the time. Achieving consensus to bomb Libya from amongst the political players who tend to use violence was not a nonviolent exercise or outcome, obviously. But if we hope to achieve significant political victories, we will learn that consensus is the basis of coalition and unity and is sine qua non to a challenger movement.

My father and I took a trip from Minneapolis to Vancouver Island in 1993 and it was a hot year for nonviolence on the route. In the mountains in British Columbia, we met the Sri Chimnoy runners and the next day I ran with them on the island. Then we went to Clayquot Sound on the Tofino side, the west of Vancouver Island. The lumber companies were about to log off the magnificent Old Growth there and folks were arriving from all over Canada to offer nonviolent resistance. The resulting actions of blockade, tree sits and trespass produced the largest mass trial in Canadian history with some 932 defendants (Walter, 2007, p. 249).

Some scholars see the heart of social movements as interest-based, that is, who gets what resources and how do we get our fair share? Others interpret such large social movements as expressions of identity-based grievance. Walters (2007) offers a good literature review of these two approaches and their respective roots and champions. In the field of conflict resolution, we would welcome the consideration and acknowledgment of both strong factors. Either perspective shows the possibilities for unity on the one hand, division on the other, and from the standpoint of strategic nonviolence, we want to maximize the unity by producing a consensus with clear boundaries. So, if we wish to preserve the ancient forests because we are interested in the forests as a scenic resource for our vacation time, we are interest-based. If we are tree-hugging, wind-kissing prairie fairies, we are an identity group and will engage as identity conflict with the lumberwagon bar oil, cleat stomping skidder driving loggers, the identity group who wants to desecrate our woodland temple.

In our field of conflict resolution, however, we hope to use adult education to help achieve a consensus that can transform such a complex conflict into something everyone can live with. The worst possible idea is to formulate a complete plan and present it as a fait accompli, as though you are the Mediator Cavalry, riding in to save the day. The first order is to listen, then acknowledge, then elicit, then synthesize, and then seek real consensus.

Listening takes many forms and is best done so that it doesn't further fan the flames. One-on-one listening is time-consuming and still the best. Absorbing the vents and rants professionally without taking sides is far easier in an atmosphere that won't erupt into ad hominem attack. It takes serious preparation to do this in a public session, setting a tone of controversy with civility.

Eliciting ideas is also done in a variety of ways and the important point is to get many of them. This part of the process of seeking consensus cannot be short and generalized. It needs to continue until the well runs dry, at which point the facilitator or mediator may offer a suggested synthesis created entirely from what was proposed by the stakeholders. That is the moment of truth. Can consensus emerge? Can the identities be honored while dividing the resources? If so, the perfect integration of identity-based and interest-based conflict transformation has occurred. Diane Nash and Nashville Mayor Ben West achieved it by the use of many of these methods when they shook hands on the courthouse steps in 1960, ending segregation there. It may be a tough process and may take more insight than we think we have, but the alternatives are all worse.


References

Walter, P. (2007). ADULT LEARNING IN NEW SOCIAL MOVEMENTS: ENVIRONMENTAL PROTEST AND THE STRUGGLE FOR THE CLAYOQUOT SOUND RAINFOREST. Adult Education Quarterly, 57(3), 248-263. Retrieved from EBSCOhost.
http://ca.srichinmoyraces.org/node/3645

Forever 21 Open in Winnipeg

One of my posts consistently sees traffic. It is the one where I talked about Forever 21 coming to Winnipeg months ago. It continues to see traffic now. As many with young kids know, the store finally opened on March 12 in Polo Park. At 38,000 feet, it is the largest of the chain's Canadian stores and only slightly smaller than its largest U.S. cousin. For Polo Park, the store's arrival has been a Godsend in that it must have seemed daunting about how they were going to fill Safeway's space after the store de-camped to Madison Square.

The store's early morning opening drew the largest crowd in Polo Park's history. Hundreds and hundreds lined up to get into the store.

Now, to be clear, Forever 21 is just a store. It isn't the second coming. However, like Ikea, Forever 21 is a highly sought out store by shoppers. It becomes a "destination" store capable of attracting people from a larger region than just the city where the store is located.

This should not be a mystery to anyone about how this happens. Most people know that when Upper Fort Garry was set up, it became a destination for trade.

And yet some who works in the halls of power seem mystified about this and other stores that can draw a crowd. We can't rely strictly on mall managers to seek out top retailers or restaurants to set up shop in the city. It is a business like any other and development agencies within the province should be going to them and making a case for their opening a store in the city. In this it is no different than when the agencies seeks out manufacturers or head offices to locate to the city and province.

Cabela's started off as a purchase of S.I.R. in Winnipeg. It is now the head office, warehouse and first store for the company in Canada.

Winnipeg has not been all to successful attracting head offices or big manufacturers in the last years. Or if they have, it certainly has been below the radar.

City and provincial officials should be making a shopping list of restaurants and stores and seek to bring them to to city. Menards would be a good start. To that end, they should find people who don't look bewildered when you say Forever 21.

Military attacks Earth: The peaceful atom

What does nonviolence have to say about the explosions caused by earthquakes and tsunami waves at the power plants in Japan? Everything. Nonviolence would have prevented the whole shooting match.

The entire civilian nuclear electricity industry everywhere on Earth got its start as a way to justify and follow the primary and original product of atomic fission research: The Bomb. Nuclear research might have plodded along for another long while before anyone would have stupidly suggested, "Hey, we've got a way to vaporize water, so let's slow it down and we can produce steam, which will turn a turbine and then make electricity. OK, it's a little like using a toxic chainsaw to cut a pat of butter, but I'm just spitballing here, maybe it would make a funny story for The Onion."

Ha. Ha. The peaceful atom is a bomb.

If the world had been serious about nonviolence after Gandhi showed how it could be used in 1908 in South Africa, perhaps nonviolence could have been used to stop World War I and certainly to stop Germany and possibly Japan in the 1930s and 1940s. Without a Pearl Harbor-triggered war in the Pacific, there might never have been a Manhattan Project, no nuclear weapons, and thus no atomic electric power industry and no problems for the Japanese, for the Ukrainians or for any of the many victims of both nuclear weapons and nuclear power ever since.

There have been numerous studies and recommendations for designing and applying powerful economic sanctions, embargoes, travel bans and other nonviolent instruments of great force. And make no mistake, sometimes force is needed and it's time for bareknuckled nonviolence. If Japan had been unable to get steel and other key goods from the US and the international community as soon as the news of their cruel attacks on China reached the world, their ability to mount a stunning attack on the US Pacific fleet would have been dramatically reduced and slowed, and likely would not have happened.

We as a nation dealt with other nations on an anarchical might-makes-right basis then and now. Effective nonviolence seems to be the province of the people, of civil society. And now it will be up to us to stop and reverse the new trend to build more nukes here and abroad. No one will do that if we the people do not. Much has been made by government and their credulous media functionaries of the safety procedures, the strict licensing requirements, and the failsafe redundancies built into commercial nuclear power plants.

Really? If so, the answers to these questions should be reassuring:
How many times has the Nuclear Regulatory Commission denied any license?
Who insures nuclear power plants?
Where is the transuranic nuclear waste buried?
Who insures the citizenry from the possible effects from a nuclear waste accident?

The NRC and its predecessor agencies have denied no nuclear applications. No one insures past a set amount against nuclear power accidents, nor against accidents from nuclear waste, because the power industry refused to build any nuclear power plants until Congress relieved them of liability with the Price Anderson Act. The transuranic nuclear waste--the nuclear waste that is composed of totally unnatural radioactive elements that are found neither in Nature nor the universe until 1945--has no permanent disposal site. Indeed, when we went through two attempts by the Department of Energy (owner of the nuclear weapons and nuclear waste) to site it in Wisconsin, I was quite involved from the beginning. Our Technical Advisory Council eventually declared there was "no safe geologic repository" possible for such material.

We owe the entire nuclear debacle to a mad need to commit an act of state terror on the Japanese people in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This is all another bad outgrowth of civilian harm from the military. Nonviolence could have prevented it all and can still help mitigate it in the future.

Parking Rate Increases in Winnipeg

Sometimes I wonder if the world's so small
That we can never get away from the sprawl
Living in the sprawl
Dead shopping malls rise like mountains beyond mountains

Arcade Fire

The announcement that the city will be increasing parking fees as well as the timeframe that payment will be required to be paid is likely to stir debate. The city has used the Winnipeg Parking Authority as a piggy bank for years and has not really put the money into upkeeping their parking infrastructure. And so it went with the Winnipeg Square parkade. The facility was not kept up as well as it as it should have been and was sold for a lesser value than it could have if it had been kept up. They money from the sale has been held in limbo ever since with the vague promise it will be spent downtown.

In a nutshell, the plan for the parking authority is to earn more money, reduce administrative costs and charge more for high traffic areas such as Broadway while increasing the time that payment is required. For Broadway this would mean that rates would double from $1 to $2 and the coverage would be from 8 AM to 8:30 pm. rather than 9 AM to 5:30 PM.

In a car obsessed world, many are unhappy with the state of parking. I have been hearing it pretty much when anyone mentions the downtown. They don't like paying. They don't like the parkades because they are afraid of driving in them. They don't parallel park because they aren't good at it. They don't like parking anywhere except close to where they are shopping or eating or visiting.

In districts where people are endlessly circling looking for a street parking space, it demonstrates the problem. The thought is that increasing the parking rates will make more people consider surface or parkade parking. Many economists argue against allowing free parking with one point being it hurts poor people.

People are going to react negatively to any increase in parking prices. However, removing any restrictions or price for on street parking creates a host of problems.

So what to do?

First is the recognize that regulating transportation is something that municipalities have to take some responsibility for. Even if everyone rides bikes, it can cause traffic jams and parking problems. See Utrect, Netherlands for an example.

If there were no parking restrictions of any kind around some of the hospitals, it is unlikely that there would be any parking available for kilometres.

So, is placing a price on parking the right solution for Winnipeg when it comes to the street? Well, according to some who live here, it is a surefire way to kill an area off. If we measure the exodus to the suburban mall world over the decades, it is hard not to agree. In a society where you live by the car, you die by the car.

Would it be possible for a city like Winnipeg to simply pull the parking meters and go to posted signs that listed timeframes for free on street parking? Well, the answer is yes. If the signs were well posted, unambiguous and part of a city-wide strategy that involved ticketing, towing and fines, it is possible that all the revenue lost from the meters would be recovered from allowing it to be "free."

Realistic parking times of three hours for some areas would be good. On street parking passes for overnight parking might be a revenue generator as well.

There are a few people who dislike the Winnipeg Parking Authority. Parking meters that don't work and confusion about the signs, meters or paying in general all add up to the resistance to the department.

It is probably time that a serious debate about the future of cars, parking and the city of Winnipeg was properly discussed. The discussion crosses into zoning, policing and culture and as such, needs the proper thought. We have not taken the time to do this and we should.

The city has shown that it will talk about issues from time to time. We saw that with the debate on dog breeds in recent weeks. Not everyone might have liked the conclusion that came from that debate but it was a topic well worth re-visiting.

Bring on the talk on parking in Winnipeg.

Odds and thoughts on the 2011 NCAA Tournament

Last year I composed a series of convoluted posts detailing each team's odds of winning their respective conference tournaments, then composed a full set of probabilities for each NCAA Tournament team to make the Final Four. Despite a little rust on the prob/stat end due to my theatre exploits, I jogged my memory and quickly whipped out a full set of probabilities, adjusting for the new wonky 68 team format.

The new at-large play-in format doesn't adversely affect those teams' already dim chances of making the Sweet 16 or Final Four. We're talking about 11 and 12 seeds here, after all. These teams are already facing long odds of getting to the Final Four. At worst, playing in cuts those chances by 70%, and if so that team's probably not good enough to project getting far anyway. More than likely, a worthy Cinderella candidate only sees their chances drop by 1/3... for example a 12% shot to make the Final Four becomes a 9% shot... not a huge difference.

In the distant past I've gone over the formula for determining each team's odds of winning individual games based on Sagarin ratings, and determining their odds of reaching certain points in the tournament based on Markov formulas. I won't bore you now with the details but rest assured this isn't just a bunch of numbers and ideas I pulled out of my ass.

So now, here are the four regions and odds for each team in the region:

EAST

The only region with two play in games has a lot of wonky stuff going on aside from the bonus action, but this is pretty much Ohio State's region for the taking.

Dark horse: Washington (7). I'd say Kentucky at #4 but they'll run into consensus #1 team Ohio State in the Sweet 16, easily the team to beat this year, and Orange would be a 2 to 1 dog in that matchup: I don't foresee an upset. UW, however, is a deserving but dangerous 7 seed that, for all their ups and downs (and legal trouble) this year, can play with just about anyone in the country. If they faced overseeded #2 UNC in round two I'd actually have the Huskies as the slight favorite, and think #3 Syracuse would give them a tougher but winnable challenge in the Sweet 16. Don't be too shocked if Ohio State ends up facing UW in the regional final. I won't say the Huskies would win... but they could certainly give the Buckeyes a scare at the least, and scoring the upset isn't impossible.

Overseeded: North Carolina (2) and Xavier (6). Reputation's pretty much carrying UNC in a down year: They're more like a 4 this year. Three teams below them (Syracuse, Kentucky, Washington) would be favorites to beat them on a neutral floor. Roy Williams' team would be fortunate to make the 2nd weekend, dad gummit. Xavier is more of a double digit seed, such a bad misseeding by the committee that they may have table-set a 1st round upset (more in a bit).

Underseeded: Clemson (12) and Marquette (11). Clemson did not have the best year but they should not be playing in when they're better than at least 4-5 other at-large teams, if not more. Marquette also got unduly punished, and probably deserved a single digit seed. 1st round opponent Xavier is similarly mismatched, and don't be surprised if Marquette sends Xavier packing.

No chance in hell: Neither 16 seed poses any sort of credible threat. Texas-San Antonio's odds at the Final Four are suitably long at 430,000 to 1, but the odds for Alabama State, easily the weakest team in this 68 team field, are so laughably long they make Powerball look like a better bet: 69,000,000 to 1. That is not an exaggeration. Their odds of getting to the round of 32 alone are 612 to 1 and their odds of making the 2nd weekend are roughly 23,800 to 1.

You have a better chance of... dying in a tsunami (condolences, Japan). In fact, you're more than ten times more likely to die randomly in a tsunami (615,488 to 1). Those odds obviously go up if you live on coastline in a fault zone, but still.

At least their odds are better than the odds of winning Powerball: 195,000,000 to 1.

Odds:

1. Ohio State. Sweet 16: 79.3%. Final Four: 1.4 to 1 (41.5%)
2. North Carolina. Sweet 16: 46.2%. Final Four: 9.5 to 1
3. Syracuse. Sweet 16: 59.4%. Final Four: 7.2 to 1
4. Kentucky. Sweet 16: 59.4%. Final Four: 6.0 to 1
5. West Virginia. Sweet 16: 26.4%. Final Four: 27.3 to 1
6. Xavier. Sweet 16: 14.6%. Final Four: 96.9 to 1
7. Washington. Sweet 16: 45.1%. Final Four: 8.3 to 1
8. George Mason. Sweet 16: 7.8%. Final Four: 96.7 to 1
9. Villanova. Sweet 16: 12.8%. Final Four: 42.4 to 1
10. Georgia. Sweet 16: 6.9%. Final Four: 271 to 1
11. Marquette. Sweet 16: 23.7%. Final Four: 38.9 to 1
12. UAB. Sweet 16: 2.8%. Final Four: 861 to 1
12. Clemson. Sweet 16: 8.8%. Final Four: 131 to 1
13. Princeton. Sweet 16: 2.6%. Final Four: 2488 to 1
14. Indiana State. Sweet 16: 2.3%. Final Four: 4125 to 1
15. Long Island. Sweet 16: 1.8%. Final Four: 4331 to 1
16. Texas San Antonio. Sweet 16: 0.1%. Final Four: 430,000 to 1
16. Alabama State. Sweet 16: LOL. Final Four: 69,000,000 to 1

WEST

A more conventional 16 team region also has a conventional favorite, as Duke like OSU is facing considerable odds (41%) of making the Final Four. Few teams here can pose a serious challenge for them.

Dark Horse: San Diego State (2) and Texas (4). Silly to cite two high seeds as dark horses, but these are pretty much the best teams in the field not named Duke and the only real challengers to the Blue Devils. Texas is only a 60-40 dog to Duke and if they pulled the upset they'd be the favorite against every possible opponent. SDSU would be a 2 to 1 dog vs Duke in the Elite Eight and a 56-44 dog to Texas if the Longhorns pulled the upset but would be the favorite against anyone else. The odds for either aren't terrific, around 9 to 2 or 5 to 1, but they have the most realistic chance of everyone else to pull it off.

Overseeded: Tennessee (9) and Memphis (12). The Volunteers probably deserved a double digit seed, while Memphis' reputational license has long since expired. They won their conference tourney to get in, but they pack little more punch than your run of the mill mid-major these days, and probably belongs in the 13-14 range. Don't count on a 5-12 upset when Memphis meets legit 5 seed Arizona, while Tennessee has a reasonable shot at a round one win but stands little chance against Duke in the 32-round.

Underseeded: Texas (4) and Missouri (11). Texas has the strength of a 2, and if they meet Duke in the Sweet 16 as expected they will likely pose the toughest challenge of the bracket to the Blue Devils. Missouri probably warrants a middle seed more than a bubble seed, and likely no one will notice because Cincinnati at 6 is pretty good and is a slight 54-46 favorite to dispatch the Tigers, who deserved better.

No chance in hell: 16 seed Hampton is already a 50 to 1 dog to beat Duke in round one. Their odds of going all the way to the Final Four? A paltry 100,000 to 1.

You have a better chance of... sinking a hole in one from 150 yards (80,000 to 1). Maybe Hampton should bag the tourney and join the golf team for a relaxing weekend that doesn't involve getting crushed by 30 points against a Duke team running at half speed.

Odds:

1. Duke. Sweet 16: 82.8%. Final Four: 1.4 to 1 (41.2%)
2. San Diego State. Sweet 16: 65.3%. Final Four: 4.8 to 1
3. Connecticut. Sweet 16: 45.4%. Final Four: 12.4 to 1
4. Texas. Sweet 16: 59.9%. Final Four: 4.6 to 1
5. Arizona. Sweet 16: 30.2%. Final Four: 21.9 to 1
6. Cincinnati. Sweet 16: 28.2%. Final Four: 24 to 1
7. Temple. Sweet 16: 18.6%. Final Four: 54.1 to 1
8. Michigan. Sweet 16: 9.7%. Final Four: 90.9 to 1
9. Tennessee. Sweet 16: 7.2%. Final Four: 153 to 1
10. Penn State. Sweet 16: 13.8%. Final Four: 93.7 to 1
11. Missouri. Sweet 16: 22.9%. Final Four: 35.5 to 1
12. Memphis. Sweet 16: 3.5%. Final Four: 1133 to 1
13. Oakland. Sweet 16: 6.4%. Final Four: 315 to 1
14. Bucknell. Sweet 16: 3.4%. Final Four: 1568 to 1
15. Northern Colorado. Sweet 16: 2.4%. Final Four: 2974 to 1
16. Hampton. Sweet 16: 0.3%. Final Four: 100,000 to 1

SOUTHWEST

The odds of someone other than the top seed get a little better here, but not by much,a s top seed Kansas has a 34.6% chance of making the Final Four. However, the challenge is more broad and general, with no specific dark horses posing a threat aside from....

Dark horse: Purdue (3). Purdue might be a touch underseeded but it makes little difference at 3. They are a do-able 62-38 dog against Kansas if they meet in the regional final, and are solid (though typically not dominant) favorites against anyone else in the field, even 2 seed Notre Dame. Their chances of making the Elite Eight are a solid 39.5%, and there's a 47% chance Kansas falls before that point, which would make the Boilermakers a favorite to make the Final Four.

Overseeded: Both 11 seeds in the region's play-in game: USC and VCU. Actually, "shouldn't be in the tournament at all" is a better label. Given the snubs (Colorado, St Mary's, New Mexico), and how low both of these teams rate overall, the fact that either of these teams are playing championship basketball at all is insulting. Neither objectively is close to being a bubble team, and yet here they are. USC is a 69-31 favorite in the game, and a 74-26 dog against a far superior #6 Georgetown team. 12 seed Richmond could wipe the floor with both these play-in jokes.

Underseeded: UNLV (8) and Illinois (9). Both these 1st round opponents should be a couple seeds higher. If not playing each other for the right to get force-fed to Kansas, both would have a very good shot at the 2nd weekend.

No chance in hell: Newcomer St Peter's (14) faces some fairly long odds at 11,000 to 1 thanks to drawing tough Purdue in round one, making them a 13 to 1 dog for the upset. They probably should have been a 15 but debating the low seeds is a quibble. Our 16 in this bracket, Boston U, is facing 53,600 to 1 odds, and 33 to 1 odds of getting past top seeded Kansas. Even given that, the Terriers have the best chances of any 16 seed in the field.

Odds:

1. Kansas. Sweet 16: 72.3%. Final Four: 1.9 to 1 (34.6%)
2. Notre Dame. Sweet 16: 61.8%. Final Four: 6.8 to 1
3. Purdue. Sweet 16: 62.1%. Final Four: 4.1 to 1
4. Louisville. Sweet 16: 56.9%. Final Four: 8.2 to 1
5. Vanderbilt. Sweet 16: 26.0%. Final Four: 33.8 to 1
6. Georgetown. Sweet 16: 23.0%. Final Four: 25.4 to 1
7. Texas A&M. Sweet 16: 18.1%. Final Four: 65.3 to 1
8. UNLV. Sweet 16: 12.9%. Final Four: 37.1 to 1
9. Illinois. Sweet 16: 14.6%. Final Four: 30.1 to 1
10. Florida State. Sweet 16: 18.2%. Final Four: 65.0 to 1
11. USC. Sweet 16: 7.5%. Final Four: 141 to 1
11. VCU. Sweet 16: 1.1%. Final Four: 2911 to 1
12. Richmond. Sweet 16: 14.3%. Final Four: 105 to 1
13. Morehead State. Sweet 16: 2.8%. Final Four: 2818 to 1
14. St Peter's. Sweet 16: 0.9%. Final Four: 11,000 to 1
15. Akron. Sweet 16: 1.9%. Final Four: 5832 to 1
16. Boston U. Sweet 16: 0.3%. Final Four: 53,600 to 1

SOUTHEAST

The weakest (1) seed in Pittsburgh has a somewhat serious challenger and perhaps a couple of dim challengers to their Final Four throne. This region is rather seed, chock full of mid majors, only some of which pose a serious threat one on one, and many are underseeded, forcing them to climb uphill for the right to try and knock off the Panthers. But that said, Pittsburgh's weak-favorite status means there's a 68% chance someone else will represent the Southeast region in the Final Four, with over half the teams having roulette-like odds at doing so.

Dark Horse: BYU (3). Even without dismissed Brandon Davies, the Mormon Cougars have a solid top ten ballclub, and are no worse than a slight underdog to anyone. A couple of breaks and they could sneak past Pitt into the Final Four. Only a lack of dominant strength makes them a somewhat distant shot at 20.7%. Wisconsin (4) is close in strength but is slated to run into Pittsburgh in the Sweet 16 if they get that far.

Overseeded: Florida (2) and UCLA (7). The weakest two seed in the field should be a 5 or even lower. A very weak sub-bracket (UCLA at 7 and a downish Michigan State at 10, and of course the Gators draw the easily beatable 15 seed UCSB in round one) gives them an even money chance to get to the 2nd weekend, but BYU would be a 2 to 1 favorite if they met in the Sweet 16, and even #6 St John's could give them a serious game.

I had UCLA on the bubble, but they got a 7 seed. Ridiculous. They're a 56-44 underdog to Michigan State in the 1st round.

Underseeded: Utah State (12) and Belmont (13). Look, I know mid majors play weak schedules and you have to bear that in mind when they, say, win 30 games comfortably and only lose to top 50 opponents. But weak scheds never stopped the NCAA in previous years from giving Tark's UNLV teams or old powerhouse Memphis teams high seeds. Hell, Princeton teams in the 90's got single digit seeds a few times, and they rarely played anybody during the regular season.

Oh, but they never go far in the tourney anyway, right? The reason you never see these Utah States and Belmonts go far in the tourney is because you keep giving them 12 and 13 seeds and they're forced to play a tough 4 or 5 seed in the first round instead of some middling power conference team that they could beat. Are the powers that be afraid of getting their conferences exposed as overrated in an NCAA Div-I with better parity? Are they afraid of Utah State pulling a Gonzaga and showing they could go deep and that maybe these perennially successful small schools can play with the big boys and deserve respect?

Anyway, watch out for the 5-12 upset special here, as (5) Kansas State is a slight 47-53 underdog to Utah State. Belmont is not so lucky at 13: (4) Wisconsin is the real deal and a 64-36 favorite.

Speaking of Gonzaga, they're not what they used to be, but they're a slight 52-48 favorite at (11) to topple (6) St John's. Expect many upsets in this region. But not from....

No chance in hell: Arkansas Little Rock is a gift... for Pittsburgh, that is, if they can overcome 2 to 1 favorite UNC Asheville in the play in game. UALR is a 173,000 to 1 shot to thread the needle and make the Final Four.

You have a better chance of: Being killed on the job if you're a teacher or nurse (143,000 to 1). Education majors at UALR can both take comfort and weep at these facts.

Odds:

1. Pittsburgh. Sweet 16: 75.6%. Final Four: 2.1 to 1
2. Florida. Sweet 16: 52.4%. Final Four: 9 to 1
3. BYU. Sweet 16: 58.7%. Final Four: 3.8 to 1
4. Wisconsin. Sweet 16: 41.3%. Final Four: 6.9 to 1
5. Kansas State. Sweet 16: 18.2%. Final Four: 33.2 to 1
6. St John's. Sweet 16: 18.1%. Final Four: 31.2 to 1
7. UCLA. Sweet 16: 18.3%. Final Four: 58.9 to 1
8. Butler. Sweet 16: 13.5%. Final Four: 61.7 to 1
9. Old Dominion. Sweet 16: 9.9%. Final Four: 108 to 1
10. Michigan State. Sweet 16: 25.8%. Final Four: 30.6 to 1
11. Gonzaga. Sweet 16: 20.1%. Final Four: 25.9 to 1
12. Utah State. Sweet 16: 22.2%. Final Four: 23.5 to 1
13. Belmont. Sweet 16: 18.2%. Final Four: 29.9 to 1
14. Wofford. Sweet 16: 3.1%. Final Four: 840 to 1
15. UC Santa Barbara. Sweet 16: 3.5%. Final Four: 1649 to 1
16. UNC Asheville. Sweet 16: 0.9%. Final Four: 7729 to 1
16. Ark Little Rock. Sweet 16: 0.1%. Final Four: 173,000 to 1

More teams, more delusions: A terrible effort by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee

The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee's made some questionable choices every year, but even granted the novelty of the expanded 68 team field, this has to be one of the worst efforts I've seen from them in over a decade... as if most of them didn't know anything about college basketball.

By Sagarin rating (to this day one of the best barometers for team strength), if you filter out all the automatic qualifiers then the at-large selections should go down to the 50th rated team. Among those in the top 50, here is who got snubbed:

Virginia Tech (40)
St. Mary's (43)
New Mexico (48)
Colorado (49)
Maryland (50)

Here are the teams rated below that cutoff line that did get in at-large:

Tennessee (51)
Georgia (52)
UAB (53)
USC (62)
VCU (77)

The top three on that last list might be explainable: Bubble decisions can come down to various, sometimes arbitrary factors. But letting USC and VCU in at-large was inexcusable. Those two teams might not even qualify for the top half of an NIT field.

This is some of the worst seeding I've seen in years.

- I'm not a Texas fan but they're worthy of a 2 or a 3, not the 4 seed they actually got, not-as-strong schedule or not.

- And if you're going to dock Texas for a lack of top-25 wins and holding serve on a padded schedule, then why give North Carolina a 2 seed despite a 4-seed caliber season and the same type of resume?

- Georgetown getting a 6 despite going 21-10 against arguably the toughest schedule in the nation (18 of their 31 games against top 50 teams, no less) is ridiculous. Give them at least a 5, if not a 4.

- Speaking of ridiculous, Florida at 2 despite a relatively easy schedule, only two top 25 wins and four losses versus teams outside the top 50. They're a 5.

- Call me a Vegas homer, but UNLV got ripped off with an 8 seed despite finishing 3rd in a tough Mountain West conference with two top 10 teams (BYU, San Diego State) and a shoulda-been-in New Mexico team while going 24-8 with one of the nation's tougher non-conference schedules. Give them a 6 if you don't like them but they could've warranted a 5... not an 8. An 8 is what you give a 19-13 power conference team or a decent power team that built a 23-26 win season on an easy schedule. It's about time the Mountain West's better teams started getting more than mid-major respect.

- Along those lines, when is the committee going to stop treating Utah State like a small school and giving them 12 seeds when they're clearly a top 25 team? They didn't even do that to the 80's-90's UNLV teams, who played in the weaksauce Big West... and the NCAA HATED Jerry Tarkanian! Utah State this year was a 6 for sure, even with their weak schedule.

- I'm more of a body-of-work guy than a reward-the-hot-finish guy, so I'm not a fan of Villanova at 9 even though they did kind of collapse to close the season. Thing is... even if you're hot or cold at season's end, the NCAA Tourney is a whole new environment, whole new opponents, whole different situation, and when you put 18-22 year old kids in a new situation like that, it can change the perspective of even the most resilient kid and change their game in an instant. Once the nominal season ends and we hit the do-or-die nationally-staged portion of the season, the hot and cold streaks don't really matter anymore because whatever environment you entrenched your groove or rut in is wiped out. Villanova had a decent season overall and keep in mind their cold run came during conference play in the nation's toughest conference (Big East). They still had eight top-50 wins and went 21-11 against one of the 20 toughest schedules in the country. Hit the reset button on their year and I bet things change. And I bet they're not only going to beat George Mason, but they could give #1 seed Ohio State problems this weekend. Yeah, the collapse still happened, but I would've given them a 6 or 7.

- Kansas State is overseeded at 5. Objectively they're maybe a 6, likely a 7. You could even make a case they're more of an 8, but I've give their tough schedule and 21-10 record the benefit of the doubt. And go figure their 12-seed opponent in the 64 round is none other than Utah State. Possible upset.

- Missouri and Marquette at 11 is kind of ridiculous. Both are top 30 teams... yes, even 20-14 Marquette. Missouri didn't fare well vs what top 25 talent they faced but they had four wins vs numbers 26-50 and pretty much held serve otherwise over a meaty schedule in a 22-10 season. Marquette faced 18 top-50 teams in their 34 game season, and beat five top 25 teams. Nearly all of their 14 losses came against the top 50, and bear in mind in this field the committee would have ideally let in everyone in the top 50. Sure, I can see punishing Marquette's 14 losses, and sure I can see punishing Missouri's lack of big wins. But I find that petty here: Both had tough schedules and there's no reason either one wouldn't warrant an 8 or a 9 in this field.

- One 13 loss team that should've gotten the 10-12 seed treatment is Michigan, who did not beat a single top 25 team and though they beat six teams rated 26-50, they took a dive versus four teams outside the top 50. I'd still give them a 10, but certainly not the 8 seed they got.

- Vanderbilt got their annual overseeding gift from the tournament committee. This year's prize: A 5 seed in an 8-seed worthy 23-10 season with a dodgy non-con schedule, only two top 25 wins, and four losses against teams outside the top 50. Seriously, I wonder if gifts from the Vanderbilt AD to the Tournament Selection Committee are part of Vanderbilt University's annual budget.

- Belmont at 13 is stupid. Look at their track record: 30 mostly convincing wins (yes, they play in the lowly Atlantic Sun, but several of those teams had good years), hanging tough in two losses to tourney team Tennessee and in another loss to tourney-bound Vanderbilt, their only real blip being a road loss to Lipscomb in late January. With a lack of convincing majors in the field this year, give them a 9 or a 10 and see if they can give one of those meh majors a scare. Or at least reward the strong year with an 11 or 12. Don't give them a 13 like they're some garbage auto-qualified small school with 8-10 losses as if they got blown out by every top 25 team they faced, or like they lost several games against crappy no-name schools.

- Xavier and their zero top-25 wins is so overseeded at 6 that the committee clearly table-set an upset loss to underseeded 11 seed Marquette. Conversely, Richmond kind of got the shaft at 12, though with a padded sched I kind of see it. Both should have been a 9 or 10 IMO. If you're going to shaft Richmond with a 12 you should have done the same for Xavier given they've had mostly identical seasons. Why unduly reward one while punishing the other? Because we recognize Xavier on a TV set more than we recognize Richmond? That's not how you're supposed to seed teams.

- Old Dominion at 9 isn't terrible but they're easily the weakest 9 in the field and if they weren't facing a similarly weak 8 in Butler, ODU would get crushed. Both are riding reputations from previous seasons: I'd have Butler at 12 this year (they went 22-9 off a pretty weak schedule), and while I might make ODU a 10, I could see seeding them as low as 12: They won 27 games off a somewhat weak schedule and didn't look as convincing as Belmont did with their weak sched.

- I don't like making Clemson play-in: I have eight tournament teams behind them, four of which incidentally got wrongfully snubbed. They're at least an 11. They didn't look too impressive against tougher teams but they still won 21 games against a decent schedule.

- If you're going to punish 13-14 loss teams at all, then why give Penn State a 10 despite 14 losses? Because they had a hot run in the Big Ten Tourney? Again, not a fan of rewarding hot streaks, because then you get 3-4 days off and have to play a new, tough opponent on a new, neutral, nationally televised court in a do or die game... which changes everything. Yes, I like their very tough schedule, but if you reward that for a team while ignoring 13-14 losses, then don't go punishing Marquette.

- UCLA at 7 makes little sense. Yes, three top 25 wins in a 22-10 season, but they had a pretty weak schedule for a Pac 10 team (only eight top-50 opponents in all), didn't look particularly convincing in many of their wins, and lost five winnable games to teams outside the top 50. I'd have them at 12 and would have had them play-in.

******

Bear in mind... I'm only hitting the clear, distinct mistakes. Poring through the teams and ratings, there was so much else to cover that, if I could see a couple of plausible reasons to overlook a seeding mistake, maybe a particularly strong/weak schedule or a lot more losses/wins than usual or something, I let it go if it was just 1-2 seeds over or under. This post could have been twice as long if I hit everything.

Well done, Selection Committee. Way to use three extra at-large bids as an excuse to turn completely stupid.

Gul Panag Rishi Attari wedding photos

AFC Kempston Rovers

AFC Kempston Rovers 4 Northampton ON Chenecks 0 - United Counties League, Division One

Kempston was once known as the largest village in England but is now a town. Until the 19th century Kempston was a mainly rural parish. It was one of the largest in Bedfordshire with an area of 5,025 acres at the time of enclosure in 1804, and was in Redbournestoke Hundred. Historically there was no central village, but instead settlement was divided between a number of hamlets called "Ends", for example, Up End, Wood End and Box End. Kempston's parish church, All Saints, was in Church End. Kempston in its old form means bent or curved. Therefore when coined the name meant settlement on the bend of the Great River Ouse.

Kempston Rovers FC was founded in 1884 and the club is currently celebrating their 127th year of existence. Known as The Walnut Boys due to the original ground originally being an orchard of walnut trees, the club started out in the Bedford & District League. After a spell in the South Midlands League, the club joined the United Counties League in 1953. The current ground Hillgrounds Leisure is the third ground that the club has occupied on Hillgrounds Road! In 1975 the club reached the last 16 of the FA Vase. 2002 saw the merger of Kempston Rovers, Kempston Town and Kempston Colts under the collective name AFC Kempston.

The original intention was to watch Bedford v Hoddesdon Town in the Spartan South Midlands League and a car journey from Cheshunt was straightforward enough, enabling us to reach Meadow Lane 50 minutes before the scheduled kick off. There was already plenty of activity but unfortunately this was for Bedford Town v Hemel Hempstead Town at the adjoining stadium. I was informed by a turnstile operator that Bedford FC were unable to use their ground due to a fire and that they were playing at Wooton. I may have missed something but I struggled to find any reference to this on club or league websites.

The easy option would have been to go next door and watch the Bedford Town match, but my preference was to visit somewhere new. Without any prior knowledge we headed for neighbouring Kempston, with at best a 50/50 chance of the United Counties League club having a home fixture. We had little difficulty locating the ground as there are signposts to Hillgrounds, although it is not clear that this relates to football. Something in the memory clicked and we were rewarded when arriving to find a match on.

Once inside the ground with 15 minutes to spare, there was opportunity to explore. I came across the clubhouse bar with two TV screens, one showing the Italy v France Rugby union match and another showing the post match interviews from the Birmingham City v Bolton Wanderers FA Cup tie. More importantly was the Charles Wells Eagle Bitter on handpump, which I tested (purely for journalistic purposes – Ed).

Apart from the dugouts, the only permanent structure is the stand/changing rooms/clubhouse along one side of the pitch. One side of this impressive block is seated whist the other is terraced and also houses the tea bar. There are additional changing facilities in the same block serving the outer pitch. Between the main pitch and the outer pitch is an astroturf area, both additional facilities were in use at the same time as our match.

The visitors are struggling this season, in contrast to their hosts, but competed well in the first period. They did not concede until the 39th minute when an own goal undid their earlier efforts. However, this was compounded by a reckless challenge a minute later rewarded with a red card. In the second period, further strikes on 54, 58 (a classy goal from Kofi Schulz) and 89 ensured comfortable 3 points for promotion chasing Kempston.

 
Admission: £4:00
Programme: £1:00 (16 pages)
Attendance: 39
Tea: 80p
 
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